Putin Can't End the Ukraine War Because His Political Survival Now Depends On It

While the Kremlin postures as a serious participant in ceasefire negotiations, the reality is that Putin can no longer afford to make peace. His army has repeatedly failed to achieve its strategic objectives and appears incapable of ever doing. The Ukrainian army, meanwhile, continues to hold its own, is counterattacking and continues to hold some Russian territory. Putin's economy has become dependent on artificial wartime expenditures which have revived some local labor markets, but have spurred abnormally high inflation. 

If the war ends, Putin's failure to subdue Ukraine will become even more universally obvious. His country will be flooded with psychologically damaged veterans, many of whom were convicts to begin with. The families of the hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded will wonder what it was for. The economy, never known for innovation or productivity, will contract. Russian oligarchs, already cynical but afraid to speak out, will begin to plot since he is neither infallible nor all-powerful. In sum, the war, having delivered nothing promised, has become a self-reinforcing survival mechanism for one man. JL

Andrew Novitskyi reports in the Kyiv Post:

Putin launched the war with grand promises. (But) he didn’t take Kyiv in three days. He didn’t destroy Ukraine. Instead of scaring the West into submission, NATO is bigger, stronger, and closer to Russia’s borders. Military spending accounts for 40% of federal expenditures: one of every three rubles. Many Russian regions see local economies reviving through demand for weapons. Ending the war would mean shutting down this wartime economic engine. What can he call a victory? Capturing a few ruined towns while losing influence, global respect, and millions of lives? Ending the war would flood Russia with broken, dangerous men. The Kremlin fears the chaos that would follow. He will prolong the war as long as possible - without it, his regime collapses. There is no exit strategy. The war will go on. Not because Putin is strong. But because he’s too weak.

Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was meant to be swift and victorious. But more than three years later, Russia remains stuck in a bloody, expensive, and destabilizing war. While the world debates how to stop the war, one truth becomes increasingly clear: Putin himself can’t end it. Here are five reasons why.

The return of broken men

More than 700,000 Russian soldiers have been fighting in Ukraine, many of them poorly trained, traumatized, or brutalized by war. Those who return home often carry deep emotional and psychological wounds – some of them turn violent, committing crimes like assault, rape, or even murder.

Moreover, as Russia’s mobilization resources become exhausted, the Kremlin has turned to recruiting prisoners – including individuals convicted of extremely violent crimes. The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Russia, Mariana Katzarova, confirmed that approximately 170,000 convicted violent offenders have been recruited to fight in Ukraine.

 

“Many of them – and this is a new trend – are committing fresh violent crimes upon their return, targeting women, girls, and children, including sexual violence and murder,” she said during a UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva.

Ending the war would mean flooding Russian society with even more broken, dangerous men. The Kremlin fears the chaos that would follow.

A war-based economy

Russia’s economy has reoriented itself around war.

 

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has redirected massive state resources into the war machine – from tanks and missiles to uniforms and drones. Defense spending in 2025 is set to reach nearly 30% of the entire national budget – a staggering figure, higher than in any year since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

According to Bloomberg and other independent sources, military and security spending will account for almost 40% of all federal expenditures. This means that one out of every three rubles the government spends now goes toward war. Entire industries – metallurgy, chemicals, electronics – have been reoriented to serve military production. Many Russian regions are seeing their local economies revived not through innovation or trade, but through the booming demand for weapons and ammunition.

 

Even more surprising: despite Western sanctions and economic isolation, Russia’s GDP slightly increased in 2023, growing by about 3.6%, according to the Russian statistics agency Rosstat. But this growth is largely artificial – it is driven by war spending, not sustainable development. It’s an illusion of prosperity fueled by militarism and death.

Ending the war would mean shutting down this entire wartime economic engine. Most likely, Putin has no desire to find out what happens if that engine stops. For the regime, war is no longer just a political tool – it’s an economic lifeline.

War as political cover

As long as the war continues, Putin enjoys a dangerous kind of immunity. The war silences dissent, mutes criticism, and justifies authoritarianism. Everything – from poverty to censorship to assassinations – is excused under the slogan “we’re at war.”

 

Under the cover of this war, Putin has eliminated key opponents. Alexei Navalny, his most prominent critic, was killed in an Arctic prison under suspicious circumstances. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who dared to challenge Putin’s authority with a mutiny, died in a mysterious plane crash just two months later. Other opposition figures like Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza have been imprisoned or forced into exile.

Russia’s cultural elite – musicians, actors, writers, and filmmakers – have either fled or been silenced. After 2022, many left the country, taking with them the last pockets of public resistance. What’s left behind is a hollowed-out society, easier for Putin to control.

Meanwhile, the war distracts from domestic disasters and government failures. When terrorists attacked Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing over 140 people, the regime was quick to blame Ukraine – even though ISIS later claimed responsibility. Many Russians accepted the lie, unwilling to question the official narrative.

Basic services are collapsing. Health care is underfunded. Infrastructure is crumbling. Putin promised to relocate people from Soviet-era barracks over twenty years ago – but instead, he’s now building new apartment blocks in occupied and destroyed Mariupol. The message is clear: war matters, people don’t.

 

Putin doesn’t want peace because war keeps him untouchable. It allows him to avoid responsibility, crush opposition, and present himself not as a dictator – but as a “wartime leader.”  Peace would force people to ask questions – like why Putin is still in power after 25 years.

No victory, no exit

Putin launched the invasion with grand promises: to “denazify” Ukraine, topple its government, and stop NATO expansion. None of those goals have been achieved.

He didn’t take Kyiv in three days. He didn’t destroy Ukrainian identity. He didn’t “de-Nazify” anything. What he has achieved is the exact opposite of what he promised.

Ukraine today is more united, more determined, and more militarily capable than ever before. It has one of the most experienced and battle-hardened armies in Europe.

Ukrainian defense startups are producing drones, electronic warfare tools, and missile components not only for their own army, but in cooperation with global military giants like Rheinmetall and Saab.  Ukraine isn’t just defending itself – it’s becoming part of the Western military-industrial ecosystem.

Generations of Ukrainians will never forget what Russia has done. The trauma, the war crimes, the stolen children – these scars will last decades. Hatred toward Russia is now deep, personal, generational.

 

And while Ukrainians fight for a free future, they are also restoring their history, language, and culture – repressed for centuries under Moscow’s rule. Ukrainian books, films, music, and theaters are booming. Every Russian missile only reinforces the national awakening Putin wanted to prevent.

In contrast, Russia is isolating itself – poorer, angrier, and more authoritarian. And that’s the real problem for the Kremlin: a free, successful Ukraine is a direct threat to Putin’s regime. Because it shows his own people that there’s another path – one where you don’t need a dictator to survive.

So what can he call a victory now? Capturing a few ruined towns while losing influence, global respect, and millions of lives? There is no exit strategy. Not for him. Not anymore.

The NATO illusion

And Last but Not Least. One of the main reasons Putin launched his full-scale invasion was his 2021 ultimatum to the United States and NATO: roll back forces from Eastern Europe and return to the 1997 status quo. He believed war would scare the West into submission. Instead, it did the opposite.

NATO is now bigger, stronger, and closer to Russia’s borders than ever before. Finland – with its 1,300-kilometer (808-mile) border – has joined the alliance. Sweden followed right after. What was once a buffer zone is now a direct frontier with NATO troops and hardware. This is not the rollback Putin demanded – it’s a historic expansion of Western military presence.

 

More than that, the European Union is rearming. For the first time in decades, EU leaders are seriously discussing forming a joint defense bloc independent of the US, focused on collective European security. The EU aims to become militarily self-sufficient by 2030, a tectonic shift driven entirely by Putin’s aggression.

Instead of weakening the West, he united it. Instead of stopping NATO, he supercharged it. Instead of dividing Europe, he made it more determined than ever to resist autocracy.

Now he cannot stop, even if the longer he goes on, the worse it becomes. He is trapped in a war he started but can no longer end.

So what’s next?

Putin didn’t just start this war – he built a system that depends on it. Psychologically, economically, and politically.

And the truth is: he cannot end this war by himself. He either needs to accomplish all his original goals – which are now completely out of reach – or be forced into peace by overwhelming internal or external pressure.

In any other case, he will prolong the war as long as possible. Because without it, his political regime collapses. Without it, his carefully staged image as a “great leader” disintegrates. His historical legacy doesn’t survive peace – it only survives in chaos.

This war is no longer about Ukraine. It’s about keeping one man in power and preserving a lie. And until that lie collapses – or is broken from the outside – the war will go on.

Not because Putin is strong. But because he’s too weak to stop.