As Ukrainian Counterattacks Succeed, Russian's Gains Halt To 5-Month Low

Ukraine's increasingly aggressive counterattacks in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kursk and Belgorod have caused Russian gains to drop to their lowest rate in five months. 

This new assertiveness, achieved with drones, artillery and fast mechanized attacks, has come in addition to growing Russian problems with manpower replacements, equipment losses - especially armor and trucks - and the accumulated impact of long range air attacks on ammunition and oil supplies. JL

Vira Kravchuk reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russia’s advance across Ukrainian territory has fallen to its lowest rate since late 2024, with March 2025 showing a significant reduction in captured territory compared to previous months.  Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have played a significant role in this development. Recent weeks have seen Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks in both the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, successfully regaining positions previously lost to Russian forces. It would now take over 83 years for Russia to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine, assuming they could sustain current casualty rates indefinitely, which is unlikely.

Russia’s advance across Ukrainian territory has fallen to its lowest rate since late 2024, with March 2025 showing a significant reduction in captured territory compared to previous months.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have played a significant role in this development. Recent weeks have seen Ukrainian forces conduct localized counterattacks in both the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, successfully regaining positions previously lost to Russian forces.

The ISW, which uses geolocated footage to track battlefield developments, reports Russian gains of approximately 627 square km in November 2024 compared to just 203 square km in March 2025.

This assessment slightly differs but still confirms the data posted on 5 April by the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) that Russian forces advanced just 143 square km in Ukraine during March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive month of declining territorial gains. This marks a significant decline from the 700+ square kilometers seized in November 2024. ​

The discrepancy in precise measurements likely stems from different methodologies used by the two organizations, though both sources agree on the overall pattern of diminishing Russian advances.

 

In February 2025, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces in Ukraine suffered high casualties in January 2025 while experiencing a slowdown in territorial gains. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimated that Russia lost approximately 48,240 troops that month. 

The ISW also analyzed that Russian advances in Ukraine have been steadily declining since November 2024, with monthly territorial gains decreasing from approximately 627-730 square km in November 2024 to only 143-203 square km in March 2025.

 

Russian forces currently occupy about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, with the remaining 80% under Ukrainian control. 

Earlier, the ISW estimated it would take over 83 years for Russia to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine, assuming they could sustain current casualty rates indefinitely, which is unlikely.

In March, Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, ending a seven-month operation that aimed to divert Russian attention from the main conflict zones in eastern Ukraine. 

As of recent successes on the front, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault near Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast, effectively countering Russian attempts to advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.