Ukraine's Recent Success In Donetsk, Negotiations, Confirms Kursk Strategy

Ukrainian forces have stopped Russian advances, once thought to be 'inevitable,' in Donbas while executing a tactical retreat in Kursk which has decimated tens of thousands of Russian and North Korean troops, embarrassed Putin in ways that have impacted ceasefire negotiations while still retaining some Russian territory. 

By every calculated strategic assessment, the incursion has achieved its goals by depleting Russian forces and strengthening the Ukrainian position in the country's east. Ukraine can now prepare for the war's next phase against a still formidable but weakened enemy. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukraine's incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast was never about holding territory indefinitely. It was calculated with clear strategic objectives to force the Russians to redeploy reserves away from the Donbas front. Second, it gained leverage in negotiations by controlling Russian territory. In recent weeks, Ukraine’s ability to turn the tide in Donetsk Oblast has demonstrated its effectiveness. One failed Russian counteroffensive after another led to Russia's sacrificing their Pokrovsk and Toretsk offensive.  Ukraine’s strategic position has improved significantly since the Kursk incursion. The primary goal -stabilizing the eastern front - was achieved. Ukraine’s withdrawal is tactical, to fight from more defensible positions.

Today, there are important updates from the Kursk direction.

Here, the Ukrainian forces started to shorten the front line in the salient with a controlled withdrawal while the Russians continued their multi-vector offensive. Russian commanders decided to exploit the opportunity created by the halted American military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine and raised the tempo of their assaults.

The Ukrainian forces started a controlled withdrawal from Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Photo: Screenshot from the video

It is important to reiterate that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast was never about holding territory indefinitely. It was a calculated move with clear strategic objectives designed to serve two primary purposes. First, it forced the Russians to redeploy critical reserves away from the Donbas front in the east, preventing them from making rapid gains there. Second, it potentially gained leverage in future negotiations by controlling Russian territory.

In recent weeks, Ukraine’s ability to turn the tide in Donetsk Oblast has demonstrated the effectiveness of this course of action. The initial goal was to force the Russians to shift reserves away from their offensives in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Though the Russian commanders attempted to avoid this at first—pulling forces from Kharkiv and Kupiansk instead and even bringing reinforcements from North Korea—it eventually became clear that additional troops were needed to push Ukrainians out of Kursk. One failed Russian counteroffensive after another led to the inevitable, and they ultimately had to sacrifice both their Pokrovsk and Toretsk offensives.

Russian commanders had to pull forces from Kharkiv and Kupiansk and even bring reinforcements from North Korea. Photo: Screenshot from the video

Ukraine’s tactical gains but strategic withdrawals 

This shift allowed Ukrainian forces to hold back Russian advances entirely and, in turn, regain the upper hand in both these directions. In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops transitioned from defense to counteroffensive operations, gradually dismantling the Russian western flank that had once threatened to envelop the town.

In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops transitioned from defense to counteroffensive operations. Photo: Screenshot from the video

 

Meanwhile, in Toretsk, Ukraine leveraged its newfound breathing room to launch a series of raids that escalated into a full-blown pincer movement, nearly encircling Russian forces in the town’s northwestern sector. Without the Kursk operation diverting Russian manpower and resources, these Ukrainian gains would have been significantly more complex—if not impossible—to achieve.

In Toretsk, Ukrainian raids escalated into a full-blown pincer movement. Photo: Screenshot from the video

The secondary goal—holding Russian territory as leverage in potential negotiations—was ultimately diminished due to shifting political dynamics. While controlling parts of Kursk Oblast would have pressured Russia in any peace talks, shifting US foreign policy and cutting intelligence sharing with Ukraine fundamentally altered the equation. While the diplomatic goal has become less relevant in the face of these changes, the first goal of diverting forces away from Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine has been a resounding success.

At the same time, battlefield realities are making a prolonged Ukrainian presence in Kursk increasingly untenable. Russian forces gained several tactical and operational advantages, threatening the overall sustainability of the salient as they established fire control over key Ukrainian supply routes. Malaya Loknya lost its primary supply route due to Russian shelling, and with Russians moving into Lebedevka in the south, Ukrainian resupply efforts became even riskier. The road from Sumy to Sudzha, already targeted by Russian fiber-optic drones, became even more exposed as the Ukrainian-controlled corridor in Kursk shrank to just 20 kilometers, making it increasingly difficult to maneuver and resupply frontline forces.

Russian forces established fire control over key Ukrainian supply routes in Kursk Oblast. Photo: Screenshot from the video

Additionally, the lack of foliage meant Ukrainians could not station armored quick-response units close to the front line to counter dangerous Russian advances, as seen in the fall of last year. Given these challenges, a strategic withdrawal to more defensible positions became the logical course of action. The Ukrainian forces began a deliberate and controlled withdrawal from some positions, recognizing the risks of holding an increasingly vulnerable salient. Interestingly, the timing of this withdrawal correlates closely with the suspension of US intelligence sharing—something Russia quickly moved to exploit.

Ukraine is regrouping for the next phase of the war

Russian commanders, realizing Ukrainians had already pulled back from Pogrebki, launched a series of attacks in an attempt to encircle and cut off as many Ukrainian troops as possible.

One of these attempts was a failed infiltration operation in Sudzha, where Russian forces tried to land behind Ukrainian positions by crawling 15 km through a gas pipeline. Initially, Russian state media hurried to announce the operation’s success. However, as more information surfaced, it became clear that Ukrainian drones had tracked the infiltrators, ambushed them, and destroyed them almost immediately, with Russian sources reporting that the survivors later suffocated due to toxic fumes.

In Sudzha, Russian forces tried to land behind Ukrainian positions by crawling 15 km through a gas pipeline. Photo: Screenshot from the video

 

As Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions, rear guard units stayed behind to delay Russian advances, making the maneuver possible. While most units withdrew in an orderly fashion, some of those who stayed behind were inevitably encircled. After a fierce fight and an unsuccessful rescue operation by Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, several groups of trapped rear guard soldiers surrendered only after running out of grenades and fulfilling their mission of slowing the Russians down.

Overall, Ukraine’s strategic position has improved significantly since the start of the Kursk incursion. The operation forced Russia to divert critical reserves away from its theater-wide offensive effort, halting and reversing several key advances in Donetsk Oblast. While holding Russian territory as leverage proved unfeasible, the primary goal—stabilizing the eastern front—was successfully achieved. With Russia gaining localized advantages in Kursk, Ukraine’s withdrawal is a tactical adjustment, allowing forces to regroup and fight under more favorable conditions.