Ukraine's Kursk Forces Reportedly "Not Encircled, Not Withdrawing"

Some western media are reporting what appears to be suspiciously similar Russian disinformation that a major breakthrough by Russian forces has occurred in Kursk oblast, endangering Ukrainian troops with encirclement and forcing them to withdraw. 

But reliably objective sources say that while there is heavy fighting in the area, the Ukrainian supply road remains 11 kilometers wide and that small Russian assault groups are attacking, not that there has been a major breakthrough. Given the importance of the Kursk salient to ceasefire negotiations - and the recent conspicuous failure of Russian forces in Donbas - that it is sensible for Russia to be attempting assaults elsewhere, like Kursk and Kharkiv. JL

The Institute for the Study of War and Espreso Ukraine report:

Ukrainian sources claim there is no encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk salient and the command is not planning their withdrawal at the moment. The width of the Ukrainian foothold around the Sudzha-Sumy road is now 11 kilometers. No large-scale border breach between Novenke and Zhuravka has been detected at this time. The Russian military command may have tasked elite units to envelop the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast from the south. Russian forces would have to close a gap of 35 kilometers in order to envelop Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, and this operation will likely be difficult should Ukrainian forces choose to defend the highway to support their salient. 

There is no encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, and the command is not planning their withdrawal at the moment. According to informed sources of the outlet, measures are being taken to stabilize the situation, and counteractions are being planned.

Currently, Russian forces plan to cut off the Sudzha-Sumy road, thereby creating an operational encirclement of Ukrainian troops, explains RBC-Ukraine.

The outlet noted that the width of the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region has now reduced to 11 kilometers. Defending and conducting combat operations there is complicated by the forested terrain and the widespread use of fiber-optic drones by the Russians.

However, according to sources, the situation is not yet catastrophic, and there is currently no encirclement of Ukrainian troops there.

The situation on the Kursk foothold began to worsen after Russian troops advanced to the northwest of Sudzha - towards Sverdlikovo, near the Ukrainian state border.

Now, these troops aim to break through to Basivka and further to Yunakivka in the Sumy region, the sources claim. The next threatening step was the breakthrough of joint Russian and North Korean units near Kurylivka towards the state border, south of Sudzha.

 

Center for Countering Disinformation's response

"Information is spreading across networks about a large-scale breakthrough by Russian forces at the Sumy region border. The Center has verified this information with the Kursk military group and reports that no large-scale border breach between Novenke and Zhuravka has been detected at this time," the CCD reported.

They noted that the Russians are still attempting to act in small groups of a few individuals. The main goal of these groups is to establish a foothold on Ukrainian territory and expand the combat zone. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are effectively destroying such groups, the Center emphasized.

 

Russian forces likely intend to leverage limited advances into Sumy Oblast to completely expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast among other objectives. Geolocated footage published on March 7 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Basivka (northeast of Sumy City) just across the international border in Sumy Oblast.[12] Russian forces marginally advanced into northern Sumy Oblast near Zhuravka (northwest of Badivka) in mid-January 2025 as part of their efforts to bypass Nikolayevo-Darino (east of Sudzha) from the south and have continued to operate in the area over the last six weeks.[13] Russian milbloggers recently claimed that Russian forces seized Basivka and Novenke (north of Basivka), and Ukrainian sources stated on March 7 that Russian forces have been gradually advancing in the area in recent weeks.[14] A Ukrainian source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on March 7 that Russian forces are concentrating forces in Novenke, attempting to advance towards Basivka, and attacking the Sumy City-Sudzha H-07 highway near Yunakivka (south of Basivka).[15] Russian forces are currently six kilometers from the H-07 highway and nine kilometers from Yunkivka at their furthest point of advance in northern Sumy Oblast and will have to identify or establish usable crossings over the Loknya River if they intend to advance directly southeast towards the highway from the Basivka area.

The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to cut the H-07 highway in order to complicate Ukrainian logistics in the Kursk salient and as part of a longer-term Russian effort to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kursk Oblast under the threat of envelopment. Russian forces reportedly made limited advances into Sumy Oblast south of Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha) in early January 2025, and Russian forces may be attempting to advance along the southern flank of the Ukrainian salient and interdict Ukrainian egress routes from Kursk Oblast from the east and west.[16] Russian forces likely intend to cut Ukraine's main obvious egress route along the H-07 and force the Ukrainian military to withdraw from the Kursk salient to Ukraine via fields and smaller roads. Russian forces are likely also aiming to complicate Ukrainian logistics and troop redeployments to Kursk Oblast by interdicting the H-07 highway.

Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly conducting the attacks near Zhuravka, Novenke, and Basivka and additional elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade are reportedly operating near Plekhovo.[17] The Russian military command may have tasked these relatively more elite units to lead Russian efforts to envelop the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast from the south. Russian forces would have to close a gap of roughly 35 kilometers in order to envelop Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, and this operation will likely be difficult should Ukrainian forces choose to defend the highway to support their remaining salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are unlikely to conduct a significant offensive operation further towards Sumy City as long as Ukrainian forces hold positions in Kursk Oblast, however.