Russia believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. "Because if the war continues for another five or ten years a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete on the world stage, especially its ability to contest the Arctic regions." Russia will never be able to catch up and could "forever remain a regional player. The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost." Both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said China is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats.
Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage.
Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security.
Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents.
"We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR.
"Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added.
Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said.
"And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said.
Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said.
The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions.
In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible.
According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options."
Ukraine thinks Russia's costs are too high
The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline.
"If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them."
Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions.
"The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform.
Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might.
The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats.
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