As Kyiv Embraces Ceasefire, Russia "Angry" Putin Must Choose Ukraine or Trump

Trump must really want that Nobel Peace Prize. There was cautious optimism in Ukraine at the announcement of a potential ceasefire agreement between the US and Ukraine, while in Russia, there is anger and consternation at the latest turn of events.

The Russians evidently believed that Trump had solidified his power to an extent similar to that Putin has over Russia. But Ukraine remains popular with a significant majority of Americans - and Russia remains a villain whom generations of Americans were raised to view with hostility. Zelensky once again read the moment and played it to advantage, saying "we view it as a positive step," thereby earning Trump's approval. In addition, Trump's tariffs and government cutbacks are wreaking havoc with the economy and the stock market, his primary bellwethers of success, guiding him to not alienate too many voters on too many issues. The result is a proposal that the Kremlin clearly abhors - and will likely reject. But it must tread cautiously to avoid angering the White House and sparking an even more distasteful outcome. JL

Lizzie Johnson and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

In Kyiv, the atmosphere Tuesday was cautiously jubilant. The outcome of the Jeddah meeting “exceeded the most optimistic expectations.” The question was how the Kremlin would respond. “For Putin, there is a difficult dilemma — Ukraine or Trump. Just yesterday, he must have hoped to get both, with Trump’s help to bend Ukraine to surrender, eventually restore control of Ukraine, and in parallel agree with Trump on various tactical and possibly strategic issues. And now he will have to choose.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "the ball is now in Russia's court."

The resumption of U.S. aid and intelligence sharing following peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, has reignited hope in Kyiv that Washington is willing to be a partner in ending the war with Moscow, even as resistance to a ceasefire mounted in Russia, and the Kremlin declined to immediately endorse the proposal.

 

Russian pro-Kremlin analysts, politicians and nationalist military bloggers said Russia would probably reject the ceasefire as a trap that would harm Russian interests and benefit Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — whom the Trump administration had accused of being unready for peace after last month’s contentious White House visit — said in a post on X that Ukraine was “willing to accept” the U.S.-proposed agreement, which went further than Kyiv’s initial suggestion of only a partial ceasefire.

 

The agreement would temporarily freeze more than 1,800 miles of front lines in their current position — where Russian forces appear to hold the upper hand. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

 

“We see it as a positive step and are ready to take it,” Zelensky added. “Now, it is up to the United States to convince Russia to do the same. If Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately.”

President Vladimir Putin has consistently stated that a temporary ceasefire would be unacceptable to Moscow. On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that Russia would not be “getting ahead of ourselves” and would scrutinize the ceasefire proposal and review the joint statement.

The bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, between Washington and Kyiv, marked an improvement in the relationship between Ukraine and its most important backer, which had chilled in the aftermath of the disastrous Oval Office visit. In a joint statement, the United States and Kyiv vowed to “immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the talks in Jeddah, posted on X that it was “a good day for peace.” He added: “We are one step closer to restoring durable peace for Ukraine. The ball is now in Russia’s court.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio boards a military airplane before departing from in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday, as he travels to Canada for a foreign ministers meeting. (Saul Loeb/Pool/Reuters)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), a close ally of President Donald Trump, said he was “encouraged” and put the onus on Russia to agree. If the Kremlin refused, he said on X, “we should sanction the hell out of them.”

 

Putin ruled out a truce or temporary ceasefire last July, while insisting that “Russia stands for a complete and final end to the conflict,” which according to his conditions for peace would involve Ukrainian demilitarization, neutrality and surrendering large chunks of territory. He maintained that a “truce or temporary ceasefire, or some kind of pause” would be used by Kyiv “to recover losses, regroup and rearm.”

Russian politicians, nationalists and military bloggers have expressed their opposition to a ceasefire. Even before the proposal was announced, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke against it on Tuesday.

Russian far-right ideologue Alexander Dugin, whose revanchist ideas are believed to influence Putin, said that Moscow would certainly reject the ceasefire proposal. He argued Wednesday on X that it would be contrary to what he sees as Trump’s ideology of a world where great powers carve up the globe into spheres of influence.

 

“The present stand on ceasefire is inconsistent in face of the Great Powers World Order he himself advocates,” Dugin wrote, referring to Trump. “Knowing that a Russian answer to so-called ‘ceasefire’ will be decisive NO, warmongers from the International Deep State repeat this mantra that ‘the ball is on Russia’s side.’ That serves to justify the war. Another tricky trap for MAGA. Think better,” he wrote in another post.

 

In Kyiv, however, the atmosphere Tuesday was cautiously jubilant, despite air sirens echoing in the night — probably in retaliation for Ukraine’s massive drone attack on Moscow earlier in the week. In the city’s historic Independence Square, known as the Maidan, a few people walked past a makeshift memorial to fallen soldiers, some stopping to pay their respects. Sisters-in-law Karina and Oksana Harei wrote messages on small Ukrainian flags to add to the thousands speared in the damp spring soil.

“We are writing the names of our defenders,” Karina said. “Our friends, just people we know who defended us.” The war had been terrible with too many people dying — including children — and she hoped it would end soon.

Oksana Harei, left, and Karina Harei write notes on flags at a makeshift memorial for soldiers in Kyiv’s Maidan on Wednesday. (Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)

Nearby, Daryna Smilyanets also stopped in the square. “I’m trying to hold on, to believe in the best,” she said. “I want all this to be worthwhile and for it to end, for everyone to return, for those who are in captivity, for those who are fighting, for everyone to come home alive.”

 

Russian attacks on Ukraine continued overnight, killing five people — four in Odessa and one in Kryvyi Rih.

There has also been fierce fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine has been holding a steadily diminishing sliver of land that it hoped to use as a bargaining chip in negotiations. Russian state agencies posted a video of a Russian flag in Sudzha’s city center, an indication that the town might have fallen. The Ukrainian military declined to answer questions about the situation in Sudzha.

On Tuesday, the deputy commander of a Ukrainian brigade that has been fighting in the Kursk region since January said the situation has rapidly deteriorated, that the Russians have “massed their forces very seriously” along the front line and “memorized all of our logistical routes.” The commander, who declined to provide his name or call signal because of security concerns, said it has become impossible for troops “to drive in or out from the territory of Kursk oblast to the territory of Ukraine” to resupply.

“Honestly,” he said, “slowly and slowly they pushed us to the point that we couldn’t put up a fight there any longer.”

Members of the 157th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army repair the explosive reactive armor of a T-64 tank at an undisclosed position near the front line in the Toretsk-Kostyantynivka area, Donetsk region, on Tuesday. (Maria Senovilla/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Russia’s successes there and slow advances elsewhere along the front are why Moscow should not agree to the proposed ceasefire, said Sen. Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament.

 

“Russia is on the offensive, so things will be different with Russia. Any agreements, with understanding for the need for compromises, will be reached on our terms, not American. This is not boasting, but an understanding that real agreements are still being written there, at the front. Washington also needs to realize that,” he wrote on Telegram.

Konstantin Malofeev, a conservative tycoon with ties to the Kremlin, claimed on Telegram that Russian fighters had “unfurled the Imperial flag in the center of Sudzha.”

“They unfurled it calmly, confidently, in the middle of the square. That’s all you need to know about ‘30-day truces, ‘freezing the conflict,’ ‘NATO peacekeeping forces.’ Only Russia can end the war and only on its own terms,” he wrote.

In Kyiv, though, the troubles on the front were largely eclipsed by the outcome of the Jeddah meeting, which “exceeded the most optimistic expectations,” Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko wrote on Facebook, positing that Trump was aiming for a ceasefire by Easter. The question, he said, was how the Kremlin would respond.

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“For Putin, there is a difficult dilemma — Ukraine or Trump,” Fesenko said. “Just yesterday, he must have hoped to get both, with Trump’s help to bend Ukraine to surrender, eventually restore control of Ukraine, and in parallel agree with Trump on various tactical and possibly strategic issues. And now he will have to choose.”