Repeatedly Smashing New Russian Attacks Gives Ukraine Leverage Over Trump

In the past few weeks, Ukrainian forces have repeatedly annihilated attempted Russian attacks in Kursk, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and other sectors of the front. 

The implication is profound. As Trump signals he wants to be credited with ending the Russia-Ukraine war - but with what many believe is a thumb on the scale for Russia - the Kremlin's forces are short of men and materiel. Russia has not ony failed to win on the battlefield, but its performance indicates it cannot ever do so, even with the help of hapless allies like North Korea. And, thanks to end-of-term aid from the Biden administration, growing assistance from Europe and its own rapidly expanding, impressive arms industry, it has enough ammunition, armor, drones and other weaponry to fight into 2026 without further US aid. As a result, Trump cannot force Ukraine to sign any deal it does not want to sign. That is significant leverage. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

In a cataclysm of artillery and drone strikes, Ukrainian forces smashed an attack by Russian troops around Ulakly in Donetsk on Sunday. The failed assault, one of several in the southeastern corner of Donetsk Oblast in recent days signaled the failure of the Russian offensive in the area. The political implications are profound. Russia is experiencing shortages of troops and equipment. “The Russian military has objectively failed and do not have the strength to recover from the degree to which they have failed. Russia cannot win this war on a battlefield. And Ukraine has enough money, weapons and ammo to fight through 2025 without issue.” That gives Zelensky leverage over Trump.

In a cataclysm of artillery and drone strikes, Ukrainian forces smashed an attack by Russian troops in and around the town of Ulakly on or just before Sunday. Surveillance drones working for the Ukrainian Tivaz artillery group registered around 10 destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles.

 

The failed assault, one of several in the southeastern corner of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine in recent days, may have signaled the failure of the Russian offensive in the area. The political implications are profound.

As recently as two weeks ago, the Russians had the momentum. They’d just ejected the Ukrainian Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group from Velyka Novosilka, a few miles south of Ulakly, and were poised to pursue the retreating Ukrainians and potentially achieve a breakthrough in the area where Donetsk Oblast meets Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Now a Russian breakthrough appears unlikely. “Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue Khortytsia OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.

Not only have the Russians suffered heavy losses in their modest advance along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia corner, they’re also experiencing broader shortages of troops and equipment that have compelled them to prioritize their attacks.

Desperate to eradicate the Ukrainian-held salient in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast and equally eager to capture the fortress city of Pokrovsk, 18 miles north of Ulakly, the Russians are diverting resources from southern Donetsk. “The enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds and resources,” CDS assessed.

In conclusion, “the plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible,” the analysis group asserted.

 

The exhaustion of the Russian offensive in southeastern Ukraine comes at a perilous time for the Kremlin. The administration of U.S. Pres. Donald Trump has threatened to abandon Ukraine unless the government in Kyiv consents to Trump’s $500-billion mineral extortion scheme. At the same time, Trump reportedly is considering pulling U.S. troops from NATO states bordering Russia.

Ukraine—and Europe in general—is grappling with the possibility that 80 years of strong U.S. support for European security may come to a bizarre and abrupt end. Given the chaos resulting from the American retreat, the regime of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin should be in the strongest possible position to demand huge territorial concessions in exchange for ending its wider war on Ukraine.

But Russia isn’t actually winning on the battlefield in Ukraine. Where its forces make gains, the advance is usually measured in yards—and might cost entire infantry companies with scores of troops.

Yes, the Ukrainian military is struggling to mobilize sufficient forces. But the Russian military is struggling, too—and it’s the one that must advance hundreds of miles against a technologically advanced foe in order to achieve Moscow’s original objectives, including regime change in Kyiv, by force alone.

“The Russian military has objectively failed,” analyst Andrew Perpetua pointed out. “And they do not have the strength to ever recover from the degree to which they have failed. Russia cannot win this war on a battlefield.” But it can win at the negotiating table if, for some reason, Ukraine caves to American pressure to end the war on terms favorable to Russia.

Fortunately for Ukraine, Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky understands the political dynamics—and has so far refused to surrender. Publicly lavishing praise on Trump while also steadfastly refusing to sign the misspelled, exploitative minerals deal memo the White House forwarded to him, Zelensky “has handled negotiations very well so far,” according to Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

 

Well-armed by its own industry, its European allies and the administration of former U.S. Pres. Joe Biden, “Ukraine has enough money to fund all of 2025 and part of 2026,” Perpetua concluded. “They have enough weapons and ammo to last most of 2025, and with aid from other nations (plus that money) they will be able to fight through 2025 without issue.”

So Zelensky can afford to politely say no to Trump while his troops continue to kill and maim hundreds of Russians every day. Zelensky can wait for peace terms that are actually good for Ukraine.

Ironically, that gives Zelensky leverage over Trump, inasmuch as Trump wants to be known as the man who brought peace to Ukraine. “The only way for Trump to achieve peace is through a fair agreement with guarantees for Ukraine,” Tatarigami explained.