Months Later, Russia Still Hasn't Captured Pokrovsk And Seems No Closer

Despite a massive commitment of resources and horrific casualties, Russia seems no closer to taking Pokrovsk than it did months ago, when the capture was being described as 'imminent.'

Casualties, equipment shortages and, what is euphemistically being called 'command effectiveness' (eg, competence) are all being blamed for the chronic Russian failure. JL

Evrim Agaci reports in TPG:

Despite the dramatic reporting from the frontlines, there is the aspect of command effectiveness on the Russian side. Analysts have pointed out potential resource constraints affecting their operational capabilities. The 90th Guards Tank Division, embroiled primarily around Pokrovsk, has reportedly been under strain. Although it has managed to create smaller salients toward encircling the city, there are indications this advance may not be without challenges, as Russian troops suffer high monthly casualties outpacing recruitment efforts.

Despite significant losses and tactical challenges, Russian forces remain determined to capture Pokrovsk, as Ukrainian defenses strengthen against continued assaults.

Recent reports highlight the intensity of the military conflict centered around Pokrovsk, located within the heavily contested Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine. Russia continues to press its offensive, demonstrating little inclination to abandon its pursuit of the city, even amid significant troop and equipment losses. While both sides engage, the situation remains tenuous as Ukrainian forces defend strategically important positions.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued information on December 7, indicating Russia is likely to persist with its operations against Pokrovsk until 2025. This determination aligns with Russia's broader strategic goal of solidifying control over the entire Donetsk region, which plays a pivotal role economically and militarily for both combatants.

 

According to the ISW, the Kremlin views the capture of Pokrovsk as integral, even if it means incurring heavy casualties. Russian forces have renewed offensive maneuvers, shifting tactics and focusing on gaining ground around the city. Notably, the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade has redirected its advances from southern areas toward the west and northwest, signaling larger strategic efforts across the frontlines.

Recently, reports have surfaced about the capture of Novopustynka, situated southwest of Pokrovsk. Advancements have been noted as Russian troops have progressed toward southern areas, particularly Shevchenko, indicating shifts in battlefield dynamics. Geolocation images released on December 6 confirm these tactical gains, underscoring the fluid nature of the conflict.

Strategically, the ISW analysts pointed out how this movement aligns with the overall Russian strategy of neutralizing Ukrainian resistance and systematically encircling cities to force surrenders. The ISW emphasized the importance of maintaining combat pressure on key points, as Russian forces risk being stretched thin across multiple fronts.

Ukraine continues to resist this aggressive maneuvering. Ukrainian military leadership announced the bolstering of defenses around Pokrovsk and Kurakhove with additional equipment and reserves, showcasing their resolve to hold ground against the Russian siege. The commitment to resist mirrors the broader sentiment within Ukraine to safeguard its sovereignty at any cost.

 

The battle’s dynamics extend beyond mere troop movements and battlefield tactics. The open hostility has caused severe human and material losses, as detailed accounts indicate major casualties on both sides. Specifically, on December 9, Ukrainian forces reported 53 assaults by Russian troops near Pokrovsk, with 329 invaders neutralized, including 142 confirmed fatalities.

At the same time, as the Ukrainian resistance solidifies its defenses, Russian offensives have not let up. Clashes have erupted regularly, creating a grim scenario where artillery bombardments and air strikes have significantly ramped up. The intensity of combat is reflected by the 178 clashes reported on December 9 alone, demonstrating how relentless both parties have become.

Despite the dramatic reporting from the frontlines, there is also the murky aspect of command effectiveness on the Russian side. Some analysts have pointed out potential resource constraints affecting their operational capabilities. The 90th Guards Tank Division, embroiled primarily around Pokrovsk, has reportedly been under strain. Although it has managed to create smaller salients toward encircling the city, there are indications this advance may not be without challenges, as Russian troops suffer high monthly casualties outpacing recruitment efforts.

Experts predict the outcome of the looming battle could be pivotal – both military and symbolic. The ISW forecasted the fighting at Pokrovsk as perhaps the focal point of Russian offensives for 2024, illustrating its significance within the larger war effort. Ukraine, the ISW notes, can leverage its defensive strengths to allow for strategic flexibility over time.

 

Within this tableau of conflict, the geopolitical ramifications grow tangled as various nations closely monitor the outcomes. The support Ukraine receives, particularly from Western allies, can shift dramatically based on international political developments, such as the looming administration changes and shifts within NATO alliances.

Russia's commitment to advancing its position around Pokrovsk reflects broader military strategies illustrated throughout its campaign, depicting persistence irrespective of the steep price of war. Analysts believe this perseverance could have significant ramifications for the conflict's continuation, dictifying both immediate tactical responses and long-term strategic outcomes.

For the people and soldiers of both nations embroiled in this conflict, the stakes have never been clearer. The fighting over Pokrovsk is more than just territorial; it encapsulates the struggle for survival, national identity, and shifting allegiances in the broader conflict dynamics of the region.