Due To Ukraine Battles, Russia Unable To Help Syria Fight Rebel Aleppo Offensive

Further evidence of Russia's overcommitted military has emerged in Syria, where rebels launched their first major offensive in four years. The Russian forces stationed there have been thinned out due to the Ukraine war and were incapable of stopping the rebel assault on Aleppo, the country's second city. 

This confirms reports that suicidal Russian attacks in Ukraine have rendered it unable to respond to threats in other parts of the world, even as their gains in Ukraine are paltry. This could provide an opportunity for the west to aid the Syrian rebels as a means of diverting Kremlin attention and resources. JL

Middle East Monitor reports:

Russia is increasingly unable to help Syria’s regime counter an offensive by Syrian rebels due to Moscow’s military being tied down in Ukraine. This week, Syrian opposition fighters launched a shock offensive against forces fighting for Bashar al-Assad’s regime, yesterday capturing Aleppo. It was the first large-scale operation carried out by the rebels in over four years. Russia’s air force targeted some locations in Syria but those efforts proved ineffective in halting the rebel offensive. Russia has been slow to respond to the Syrian rebel offensive due to the relocation of most of its aerial assets to Ukraine.

Russia is increasingly unable to help Syria’s regime counter an offensive by Syrian rebels due to Moscow’s military forces being tied down in Ukraine, Turkish security sources have said.

Earlier this week, Syrian opposition fighters led by the militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a shock offensive against forces fighting for Bashar al-Assad’s regime, yesterday capturing the major city of Aleppo in rapid advances that have surprised many.

It was the first direct and large-scale operation carried out by the rebels in over four years – a period in which they were confined to the north-western province of and northern parts of Aleppo province.

The advances also caught the attention of Russia, one of Assad’s key allies which had provided key military assistance to the regime in retaking much of its territory over the past decade.

Rather than stepping in to again militarily intervene, however, Moscow has passed on the responsibility to Damascus, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating on Friday that the Russian government views the rebel offensive as a violation of Syrian sovereignty and that it expects Syrian forces to restore order as soon as possible.

It was a statement that many view as effectively leaving the regime to fend for itself.

READ: Will Syria’s opposition defeat Assad while Russia is tied down in Ukraine?

The main reason for such a stance is reportedly the fact that Russian forces remain significantly tied down in Ukraine, with much of the Russian military and air force having been deployed to the embattled eastern European nation or having been depleted in the ongoing invasion since February 2022.

According to the outlet Middle East Eye, unnamed Turkish security sources confirmed to it that Russia has been slow to respond to the Syrian rebel offensive exactly due to the relocation of most of its aerial assets to Ukraine.

Consequently, it left behind a much smaller force in Syria, rendering it largely insufficient to properly counter the operation. Although Russia’s air force did target some locations in Idlib and other areas of northwestern Syria in recent days, those efforts proved ineffective in halting or limiting the rebel offensive.

The outlet also quoted Omer Ozkizilcik, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, as saying that “Russia is not a bystander, but we are likely witnessing the limits of the Russian military”, with the performance of the Russian aerial assistance this week indicating “that much of its air force capability has been redeployed to Ukraine”.

Highlighting satellite images from Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia province showing a significant reduction in its air force presence compared to 2019, Ozkizilcik revealed that “reports from local sources on air activity show that Russia is primarily using older fighter jet models”.