A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 8, 2024

As Assad Falls, Trump Pressures Putin To End Ukraine War, Cites Russia's and Iran's "Weakened State"

When you're Vladimir Putin and you've lost your buddy, Donald Trump...

Following news of Assad's fall earlier today, Trump took to Truth Social and called on Putin to end his war in Ukraine, citing Russia's and Iran's 'weakened state.' That Trump would call out Putin in such a way, reveals that he is aware of Putin's precarious military and economic situation, and that he intends to use it to bolster his own leverage as the most powerful global deal maker, potentially giving Ukraine a better deal than many had anticipated. JL

The Washington Post and Defense Express report:

Shortly after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday morning, President-elect Donald Trump pressured his chief international backer, Russia, to end its war in Ukraine. As of this morning, a frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and cargo ship of the Northern Fleet set sail from Tartus to the Mediterranean sea. The move is part of a retreat after the loss of Damascus. The Russians are also transferring military equipment and weapons from Syria to Russia using military aircraft operating out of the Hmeymim Airbase. The Assad regime’s fall fulfills a longtime U.S. foreign policy goal, after Russia and Iran supported Assad.  “Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, said Trump”

Shortly after the extraordinary fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Sunday morning, President-elect Donald Trump pressured the autocrat’s chief international backer, Russia, to end its years-long war in Ukraine.

 

“Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. He called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and continued, “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. … The World is waiting!”

In his post, Trump also alluded to his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky here in Paris, noting that Zelensky “would like to make a deal and stop the madness.”

The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s lightning-fast takeover of Damascus carries cascading geopolitical implications as President Joe Biden is trying to secure his own international legacy, and Trump is launching his own shadow foreign policy more than a month before officially becoming commander in chief. Syria’s years-long civil war has provided a proxy battleground for U.S. relations with Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Asaad’s dramatic departure will have sweeping implications amid the war in Gaza and broader global instability.

 

The White House told reporters Sunday that Biden was also monitoring the situation and communicating with regional partners.

 

One former Trump official said he believed Trump would take a hands-off approach to what comes next in Syria, where the United States has about 900 troops.

“Both he and President Biden [have] said there’s no role for U.S. troops. I agree, I don’t see that role right now,” Mike Esper, who was secretary of defense for most of the first Trump administration, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “To do that, Donald Trump is always consistent. If there’s one thing, that’s he did not want to get involved in war.”

In the hours ahead of Assad’s fall, Trump on Saturday said the United States should have nothing to do with the rebel advance in Syria.

“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT,” he wrote on Truth Social. “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED.”

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For more than a decade, U.S. presidents have grappled with how to contain the brutal leadership of Assad without triggering a spiraling international conflict. The Assad regime’s fall fulfills a longtime U.S. foreign policy goal, after Russia and Iran supported Assad amid the Obama administration’s flailing efforts to oust the brutal autocrat.

But U.S. government officials are cautiously watching the rise of the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has been named a terrorist group by the U.S. government and has historic links to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

On Sunday, Vice President-elect JD Vance echoed Trump’s call for the United States to not intervene, tweeting that he was “nervous” about calls on social media to celebrate Assad fleeing the country.

“Many of ‘the rebels’ are a literal offshoot of ISIS,” Vance wrote. “One can hope they’ve moderated. Time will tell.” 

 

As of December 8, 2024, the Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Inzhener Trubin cargo ship of the Northern Fleet set sail from Tartus to the Mediterranean sea. The move is part of a retreat after the loss of Damascus, which is now under the control of opposition forces. The Russians are also transferring military equipment and weapons from Syria to Russia using military aircraft operating out of the Hmeymim Airbase.

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