At Current Loss Rate, North Koreans Replace 1 Week Of Russian Casualties

The North Koreans deployed to fight for Russian in Ukraine are likely to be used as 'meat' or cannon fodder and suffering the same casualty rates, meaning the 8,000 troops will last about one week.

The Russians are notoriously bigoted - even against their own ethnic minorities - so the Koreans' inexperience and language barriers will mean they are consigned to difficult, eg suicidal, attacks. They will thus be of little use to Korea from an experience standpoint and President Kim is unlikely to continue the experiment for long. JL 

Euromaidan Press and Institute for the Study of War report:

North Korean troops are unlikely to present Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower concerns, The 8,000 North Korean troops preparing for combat in Russia’s Kursk Oblast represent one week’s worth of Russian casualties across the entire front. Russian forces are experiencing1,200 casualties daily, or 36,000 per month. Russian monthly recruitment stands between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers, “meaning Russia is shy of replacing current frontline losses at a 1:1 ratio.” North Korea decided to engage in the war to gain combat experience in a modern war but if North Korean troops face the same casualty rates as Russians, the battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined, and Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to such losses indefinitely

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 1 November that the 8,000 North Korean troops preparing for combat deployment in Russia’s Kursk Oblast represent approximately one week’s worth of Russian casualties across the entire frontline.

Russian forces are experiencing around 1,200 casualties daily, amounting to approximately 36,000 per month.

US estimates indicate Russian monthly recruitment stands between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers, “meaning Russia is just shy of being able to replace its current rate of frontline losses at a 1:1 ratio,” ISW reports.

ISW reports that North Korea has committed an estimated 12,000 troops to Russia’s war effort.

Despite Choe’s statements about Pyongyang’s indefinite commitment, the ISW analysis suggests this support may not provide a sustainable solution to Russia’s manpower challenges. 

 

North Korean troops are unlikely to present Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower concerns, despite Choe's comments about Pyongyang's indefinite commitment to Russia's war effort. Austin reported that Russian forces are suffering over 1,200 casualties a day (or about 36,000 casualties a month), and recent US estimates placed Russian recruitment at between 25,000-30,000 new soldiers per month—meaning Russia is just shy of being able to replace its current rate of frontline losses at a 1:1 ratio.[15] The 8,000 North Korean soldiers reportedly preparing to enter combat in Kursk Oblast thus represent about one week's worth of casualties across the entire frontline. North Korea has committed an estimated total of 12,000 troops to Russia.[16] It remains unclear exactly how Russia intends to leverage North Korean manpower, but the commitment of North Korean troops into the type of highly attritional offensive operations that Russia has been pursuing is very likely to lead to high North Korean casualty rates.

ISW recently assessed that North Korea likely decided to engage in the war on Russia's behalf in order to gain valuable combat experience in a modern war but noted that the way that the Russian command uses North Korean troops in combat will impact the ability of North Korean forces to meaningfully internalize and disseminate combat experience.[17] If North Korean troops face the same casualty rates as Russian forces, then the battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined, and Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to face such losses on the battlefield indefinitely