At Russia's 2024 Donbas Rate of Advance, It Needs 300+ Years To Take Ukraine

The NY Times has created yet another false narrative about Russia's success and Ukraine's imminent demise, based on what it claims is Russia's 'accelerated' rate of advance in Donbas. 

The problem with the Times' narrative is that it uses what appears to be a deliberately deceptive graph that leaves out the territory Ukraine has retaken, which actually exceeds that which Russia has gained. 

One is forced to wonder what the Times' point is; a love of Kissingerian power politics; a desire to see Ukrainians murdered and enslaved by Putin due to some long ago family resentment; simple admiration of Russia? In any event, the Ukrainians continue to fight stubbornly and effectively against superior odds, including the evident bias of western media. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Ukraine has liberated far more territory from Russia between 1 November 2022 and today than it has lost. The graph leaves out everything outside of the Donbas (ie land in Kursk oblast).  The graph is constructed to show only the areas in which Russia has advanced while leaving out the areas that Ukraine has taken and at an accelerated pace. In October it took 160 square miles. Ukraine is a country of 233,030 square miles. 160 square miles is a tiny .0006% Ukraine. Russia has taken in Donbas in 2024 a total of 700 miles - .3 of 1% of Ukraine.  At the rate of advance in the Donbas that Russia has shown in 2024 (leaving out what Russia has lost), it would take Russia 333 years to seize all of Ukraine—and at a loss of more than 133 million soldiers and half a million tanks, etc.

Well, there seems to be a concerted effort to describe what is happening in the Donbas as a collapse in the making for Ukraine. Mykola and I discuss that in detail in the podcast and tried to put things in perspective. However, this week, the New York Times posted such a deceptive graph on the subject that I thought it deserves some comment. It follows on from the military metrics piece that I sent out ten days ago.

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

Phillips P. OBrien

·

Oct 22

Read full story

Then there is the graph that is used.

For instance, here was the map of Ukraine on 31 August 2024

and here it is on 1 November 2022, when the New York Times graphic starts. You will see a very large area in the North that Ukraine has reconquered (and some in the southwest.

And here is the map today.

Actually—you will see that Ukraine has liberated far more territory from Russia between 1 November 2022 and today. Ukraine liberated far more land in Kherson than the small bulge than Russia has taken in the Donbas. But here’s the thing—the graph decides to leave out everything outside of the Donbas (which also leaves out the land in Kursk oblast in Russia with Ukraine seized). In other words, its only looking at the areas where Russia has advanced since 1 November 2022, while leaving out the combined larger areas Ukraine has taken.

Its like saying, OK, I will do a graph of the US Civil War between 1 November 1861 and 1 July 1863 and only have it on the Virginia front (conveniently leaving out that in the west, the Confederacy lost far more territory than Lee had gained in the East).

So the graph is deliberately constructed to show only the areas in which Russia has advanced while leaving out the areas that Ukraine has taken. But actually, that is only one of the problems. Maybe even more is that the graph is deliberately made to make it look like Russia is taking really large chunks of Ukraine, and at a dangerously accelerated pace. I mean, cmon, in June of 2024 Russia seized 40 square miles of territory, and in October that had jumped to what looks to be a huge 160 or so square miles.

Of course that 160 square miles is in itself a miniscule part of Ukraine. Ukraine is a large country of 233,030 square miles. So this massive loss of 160 square miles in October 2024 is actually a tiny .06 of 1 (or .0006) percent of all of Ukraine. Indeed, the amount that Russia has taken in all of Donbas in 2024 looks to be around 700 square miles—that massive sum is the equivalent of .3 of 1 percent of Ukraine.

Here is that in graphic form—which the NY Times could have used but didn’t.

Of course even that figure leaves out the area that Russia has lost in Kursk—which would lower this percentage significantly. But lets leave that aside.

At the rate of advance in the Donbas that Russia has shown in 2024 (leaving out what Russia has lost), it would take Russia 333 years to seize all of Ukraine—and at a loss of more than 133 million soldiers and half a million tanks, etc.

Describing this as a swift advance makes no sense—within the confines of military history or what we are seeing today. Its a slow, bloody advance that is costing Russia a huge amount.