Russia's Recent Gains, Like Vuhledar, Attributed To Starlink Access

Russian forces' increased access to Starlink terminals, which are ostensibly sanctioned for use in Russia - and the indifference of Musk and his company to their effect - is aiding Russian military performance and killing Ukrainians. 

So far, the US has done nothing about it, though it has the power to cancel Musk's many lucrative government contracts. JL

Alex Horton and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

Russian forces have become deadlier and more agile with the help of illicit Starlink terminals, allowing them to use satellite internet to enhance coordination during assaults, fly more drone sorties and enhance the accuracy of artillery fire. A black market of Starlinks bringing the terminals to Russians on the front has been an important factor in Russia’s recent gains. Ukrainians say Musk and his company have not done enough to crack down on illicit use and doubt his desire to fix the problem, saying he appears to have favorable views toward Russia.

Russian forces have become deadlier and more agile with the help of illicit Starlink terminals, allowing them to use satellite internet to enhance coordination during assaults, fly more drone sorties and batter Ukrainian troops with accurate artillery fire despite U.S. efforts to stop the flow of technology.

The terminals, which give commanders live battlefield views with drones and secure communication between soldiers, are subject to prohibitions that outlaw many U.S. electronics from reaching Moscow. Yet there is a burgeoning black market of Starlinks bringing the terminals to Russians on the front and their proliferation has been an important factor in Russia’s recent gains during its offensive, Ukrainian soldiers said.

Tens of thousands of Starlink dishes form the backbone of Ukraine’s military network, fueling devices vital to fighting a digital war — one of the few advantages Kyiv has against Moscow’s bigger, if less modernized, force. Six Ukrainian soldiers and officers from different units across the Donetsk region told The Washington Post that Russia has closed the technology gap, making its forces more cohesive and boosting the number and precision of attacks.

 

The issue has renewed Ukrainian frustrations over Elon Musk, SpaceX’s mercurial chief executive. Some of the soldiers criticized Musk by name, saying his company has not done enough to crack down on illicit use and casting doubt on his desire to fix the problem, saying he appears to have favorable views toward Russia.

SpaceX provided free Starlink connection to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but then threatened to cut service following online spats with diplomats, citing the high costs. Musk relented under public pressure and then sent the bill to the Pentagon, the most recent totaling $14.1 million for six months of service through next month.

Musk was also widely condemned in Ukraine following reports he denied Kyiv’s request to allow Starlink access for sea drones in a planned 2022 attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. His biographer Walter Isaacson also wrote that Musk sought counsel from the Russian ambassador to the United States and was worried he would play a role in a destabilizing escalation.

Having access to reliable strong internet on the battlefield through Starlink transformed Ukrainian operations, changing what used to take precious minutes of radio chatter into seconds of taps and swipes on tablets brimming with detailed maps and chat programs. The connectivity allowed leaders to guide assaults with live drone feeds, tweak artillery coordinates by viewing impacts and assess where enemies may be their most vulnerable to attack.

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Drone video shows Ukrainian forces destroying a Starlink terminal used by Russians near Novohrodivka, according to a Ukrainian platoon commander. (Video: The Washington Post)

Russians troops had mostly relied on radios to communicate what they see and do during battles, a slow back-and-forth compared to fast internet, and they were much more rigid by comparison. Except now Russians have mirrored Ukraine by using Starlink in similar ways, Ukrainian soldiers said.

“They just overpowered us,” said an officer in the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which defended the Vuhledar area since 2022 and recently had to withdraw. He described the Russian use of Starlink as one of the important factors, along with manpower and weaponry shortfalls, that hastened the fall of Vuhledar this month. Like others interviewed for this story, he spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters.

Kyiv and Washington face difficulties solving the problem of Russian use of Starlink, analysts have said, especially in light of Moscow’s success in sidestepping sanctions and the technical challenge of denying access to the Starlink network without affecting Ukrainian troops.

The U.S. and Ukrainian governments are working with SpaceX to “prevent Russia’s illicit use of Starlink terminals in occupied Ukraine,” including focus from the U.S. Treasury Department on “potential sanctions violations” related to the international smuggling effort, said Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz, a Defense Department spokesman.

SpaceX referred to a post on X in February that said it deactivates terminals if used “by a sanctioned or unauthorized party.”

The Pentagon and SpaceX did not offer specifics on U.S. efforts, including how many illicit terminals used by Russian forces have been taken offline. Treasury declined to comment.

Terminals everywhere

Before Starlink revolutionized the market, previous generations of field satellite terminals suffered from low speeds and high prices. Now users can buy terminals for a few hundred dollars and pay monthly fees for service in more than 100 countries and territories, not including Russia, according to Starlink. Users point terminals at the sky and connect to broadband internet from one of the 7,000-plus satellites in low earth orbit.

The U.S. government increasingly relies on the service for its military operations. “That has been revolutionary for us,” said Clare Hopper, head of the U.S. Space Force’s Commercial Satellite Communications Office.

Starlink terminals have expanded across Russian positions all year, but only in the past few months have their effects been really felt, as Russian troops on the offensive use them to coordinate assaults. Ukrainian troops flying reconnaissance drones near Novohrodivka, southeast of the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, described seeing Starlinks in the Russian lines starting last month.

“Before, the Russians couldn’t control some of their movements, maneuvers, artillery, infantry,” said a drone platoon commander with the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who provided just his first name, Eugene, in line with Ukrainian military protocol. Intercepts of Russian radio transmission showed soldiers often reported incomplete or wrong information to commanders. That has changed, Eugene said, according to observations of enemy tactics.

“Now they will only improve, and unfortunately, that’s what’s happening across the board,” he said.

‘Gentlemen, I recommend!’

While Russian companies and individuals are not authorized to sell Starlink, a gray market has emerged, fueled by the high demand from military forces and private buyers.

The Post reviewed four of the many Russian sites offering direct sales for the “special military operation,” the Kremlin’s euphemism for the war. Most sell through Telegram and start their journey in the Moscow area, before being funneled to the front.

One site offers a terminal and connection fees starting at just above $1,000. Customer service is free, and each client receives recommendations “to minimize risks of blocking,” the page notes, with glowing video testimonials from soldiers.

“We have been using Starlink for about a month. No complaints, the speed is good,” one review said, showing a terminal covered in camouflage. “Technical support works great.”

“The internet is flying, the men are happy,” another said. “Gentlemen, I recommend!”

To activate a device, users need a foreign phone number, email and bank account to pay the monthly subscription fee, prompting suppliers to seek out people willing to lend their identities. Users in “client support” Telegram chats say it is easy to buy and register Starlink kits abroad. Most are obtained in Europe and transported through the United Arab Emirates. One page warns not to activate the terminal in Russia.

One supplier advised that connections for devices bought in the European Union could be blocked after 90 days of usage, suggesting one solution is to register using Ukrainian details.

Hard to shut down

Starlink can both disable individual terminals based on their ID numbers and block areas from receiving signal, a practice called “geofencing,” the Federal Communications Commission told a U.N. regulator this year.

One person familiar with Starlink said that the company is technically capable of identifying the location of active terminals based on their pings up to satellites, but that it can be challenging to discern the user in the “forward edge of the battle area,” where Ukrainian and Russian troops are operating.

Stacie Pettyjohn, defense program director for the Center for a New American Security, said the U.S. effort to curb Russia’s use “doesn’t seem like it’s been hugely effective,” partly because of the shifting front lines.

“Ukrainian forces are in Russia now. Where exactly are the front lines?” she said. “If there’s a line drawn as to where it works and where it doesn’t, you’re basically fixing the front lines where they are and preventing the Ukrainians from going on the offensive.”

Ukrainian troops, for their part, said they also had concerns over denying access in geographic regions because it may shut their own terminals down. As it is, the troops entering Russia as part of August’s incursion suddenly found their terminals not working because of the geographic restrictions.

Significantly, they soon found workarounds to get the Starlinks online again — probably the same methods Russians have deployed. Interrupting the software update process and tweaking GPS settings can get it working in Russia, said a Ukrainian drone pilot operating there.

There are other viable methods to control illegal terminals, said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow and space security expert at the American Enterprise Institute. One possibility, he said, is for Kyiv and Washington to collect terminal IDs and provide them to SpaceX, with direction to deny access to anything else.

‘It is something that kills us’

Ukrainian soldiers have not yet seen evidence that any of these control methods have made a dent. If anything, the use of Starlink is increasing in Russian operations, said Ihor Romanenko, a retired Ukrainian lieutenant general.

In recent weeks, large drones have been recovered with terminals inside, a new feature that keeps them connected to a pilot, he said, allowing them to aim with increased precision or be redirected to a better target.

“Unfortunately, this is partly due to Elon Musk’s favorable attitude toward this,” Romanenko said.

On the ground, Ukrainian soldiers target enemy terminals on sight. In the late spring, after Russian forces advanced past Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed dishes atop a coke plant, said Tymofii, a drone pilot with the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. He noted that the Russians clearly had enough dishes to give out to individual teams rather than just commanders.

“They have a lot of them … they use them the same way we do,” he said.

Russian use of Starlink is not the only factor that has helped Moscow claw its way toward Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetsk, but it clearly played a role, said Alexander, a battalion commander also in the 47th, criticizing what he said has been an inadequate response to preventing Russian use.

“It is something that kills us,” he said.