Putin's Strategy of Outlasting Ukraine Undermined By Massive Russian Losses

Since Russia's initial failure almost three years ago to subdue Ukraine "in three days," Putin has maintained that by relentlessly attacking, his forces will win a war of attrition.

But recent analyses reveal that the massive losses of manpower and equipment Russia has suffered in heedless assaults thwarted by Ukrainian forces have undermined that strategy and that Russia is unlikely to be able to generate sufficient military power to achieve even its lesser goals. JL

Olena Ivashkiv reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine is aimed at prolonging the war, assuming Russian troops can outlast Western support for Ukraine, break Ukrainian resistance and win a war of attrition. (But) medium- to long-term limitations on Russia's ability to generate forces and produce military equipment hinder its capacity to sustain ongoing offensive operations. Putin’s strategy hinges on Russian forces maintaining continuous offensive efforts indefinitely, but these grueling attacks erode Russia’s manpower and resources to the point where they need to slow the pace of operations

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine is aimed at prolonging the war, and it claims that Russian troops can outlast Western support for Ukraine and break the Ukrainian resistance, winning a war of attrition.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts emphasised that medium- to long-term limitations on Russia's ability to generate forces and produce military equipment will hinder its capacity to sustain ongoing offensive operations aimed at prolonging the war and overwhelming Ukraine through attrition. 

Quote: "Putin and the Russian military command have committed the Russian military to a year-long offensive effort along the frontline in eastern and northeastern Ukraine that seeks to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukraine from accumulating the necessary manpower and material to conduct counter offensive operations that contest Russia's theatre-wide initiative. 

Putin and the Russian military command likely view retaining the theatre-wide initiative as a strategic priority and have shown themselves to be tolerant of protracted offensive operations that result in gradual, creeping advances far short of their intended operational objectives."

Details: Putin’s strategy hinges on Russian forces maintaining continuous offensive efforts indefinitely, but these gruelling attacks will likely erode Russia’s manpower and resources to the point where they will need to slow the pace of operations in certain sectors. This would offer Ukrainian forces a chance to challenge and potentially take the initiative in those areas.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's five-part Victory Plan aimed at winning the war by the end of 2025 to the Verkhovna Rada on 16 October, which includes a promise to contribute experienced Ukrainian troops to defending NATO's eastern flank following the resolution of the war in Ukraine.

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to protract the war and posits that Russian forces can outlast Western support for Ukraine and collapse Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition. Russia will likely face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine this strategic effort, however.
• Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin notably questioned the Kremlin's articulated theory of victory and assessed that 2025 and possibly late 2024 will be "a serious test" for Russia because the Kremlin has yet to address medium- to long-term force-generation and defence-industrial-capacity constraints.
• Girkin also assessed that the Russian Summer–Fall 2024 offensive campaign did not accomplish its goals in the entire theatre and is unlikely to do so ahead of the muddy season, although Russian forces are continuing intense offensive operations in several operational directions in Ukraine.
• US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth $425 million following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 16 October.
• The South Korean Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on 16 October that it is "closely" monitoring indications that North Korean troops are directly supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine amid reports that the Russian military is training North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Kreminna, near Siversk, and near Toretsk.