Russia Has Gained 37.27 Ukraine Kms - But Ukraine Has Taken 35.92 Kms In Russia

The data show that Ukraine has taken about one kilometer less of Russia than Russia has taken in Ukraine, despite all the breathless western headlines about Avdiivka, Vuhledar etc. 

This reveals that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is stalled and probably for good, since the Russian military has neither the troops nor the material to change the operational calculus. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

How much of Ukraine has Russia seized in 2024? When you add the area Russia has taken (minus the area of land Russia has lost in Russia) it would be less than half of one percent. There is an extremely small area in which most of the fighting has gone on in 2024 - and thus the extremely small advances that have been made. to compare the areas,  the distance of the Russian advance from Avdiivka (seized in February) to the closest point of the Russian line in Avdiivka. Its 37.27 kilometres. The area that Ukraine still holds in Russia’s Kursk Oblast is 35.92 kilometres.

I asked in a poll of all subscribers this week how much of Ukraine they thought Russia had seized in 2024. I was intrigued to see what you all believed, and in some ways I was pleased.

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

Phillips P. OBrien

·

Oct 22

Read full story

Here are the results

(ps—when I was doing my first cut and past of this, I ended up voting for the more than 10% result—though happily with almost 3000 voters, my vote didnt make a difference)

31% percent were right that when you add the area Russia has taken (minus the area of land Russia has lost in Russia) it would be less than half of one percent. Of course, as regular readers of this substack, hopefully you had read the stories about the war and great Russian successes with a skeptical eye.

On the other hand more than a third (a total of 34%) had a greatly inflated view of what Russia has achieved—in some cases a hugely inflated idea. That is concerning, because it feeds into the narrative of Russian success that people like Vance, Musk, Orban, etc, are and will continue to use to try and force a peace deal on Putin’s terms.

To give you the national picture, here was the front line as part of all of Ukraine (and the bordering areas of Russia) on January 1, 2024.

And here is the front line today.

And because the amount of land that has changed hand is actually so small, here is the map today with a circle around the area Ukraine still holds in Russia itself (the blue smudge at the top) and another circle around where Russia has had its greatest advances in 2024 (at the bottom). Its worth noting that the bottom circle contains almost every town Russia has taken this year, from Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Vuhledar, Niu York.

The circles might give an idea of the overall extremely small area in which most of the fighting has gone on in 2024 (and therefore the extremely small advances that have been made.

Yes Russia has made advances, at extremely high cost, but within a context of a country the size of Ukraine, the area is tiny. Moreover, Ukraine still holds a sizable chunk of Russia. In fact to compare the areas, you can see how small the differences are. Here is a map showing the distance of the Russian advance from Avdiivka (seized in February) to the closest point of the Russian line in Avdiivka. Its 37.27 kilometres (or 23 miles)

The area that Ukraine still holds in Russia’s Kursk Oblast (even after Russia has started massing troops there to try and retake it) has a similar length (if not depth) and 35.92 kilometres,

And remember that Russia has made its advances with some enormous advantages, from the US cutting off aid to Ukraine for the first 4 months of the year, from the US refusing to allow Ukraine to make ranged attacks into Russa, from Russia receiving 5 million+ shells from North Korea (more than all of Ukraine’s partners have given it during the war), to Russia getting its hands on thousands of Shaheds through Iranian assistance, and Russia being allowed to bombard any part of Ukraine with impunity whenever it wants.

So yes, Russia has made advances, but considering the major strategic advantages its had, and the small areas, it would be very hard to say that the area seized represents some great success. Actually, and depressingly, what it shows that the Russian military remains more than beatable if Ukraine’s partners wanted to help Ukraine beat it. The only hope for such a policy remains with Kamala Harris.