Ukraine's Kursk Assault May Provide Russia With Excuse For Vovchansk Retreat

Ukraine's Kursk offensive has threatened Russian forces in Vovchansk with potential encirclement, but since the few remaining Russians in northern Kharkiv oblast are battered, poorly supplied and without reinforcement, this may provide the Russian command with the excuse it has been seeking to withdraw from the failed attack there. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian success in Vovchansk has led to the Russian withdrawal from positions south of the river. Coupled advance of Ukrainian troops in recapturing the city, this indicates Russian forces have long been unable to make advances and are now in defensive mode.Official Russian statements foreshadow a possible a withdrawal to north of the city. The Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory from Sumy Oblast could provide the perfect excuse for Russian command to withdraw troops from Vovchansk for regrouping.

there are a lot of updates from the Kharkiv direction.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Here, intense combat continues in Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces making slow but steady advances.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Russian forces have officially announced a shift to a defensive posture in anticipation of a potential Ukrainian attempt to collapse Russian positions across the northern part of the city.

Although various map update sources show slight discrepancies, most information sources agree that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from their attempt to establish a stronghold in the wooded area south of the river, directly opposite the aggregate plant.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Recently published geolocated images show a group of Ukrainian soldiers walking along the road of the bridge just west of the wooded area. The Ukrainians move without apparent concern, indicating the complete absence of Russian forces in the vicinity.

Aggregate Plant developments and drone operations

Regarding the Aggregate Plant itself, Vitalii Sarantsev, a spokesman for the Ukrainian “Kharkiv” Group of Forces, confirmed in recent statements to the media that a small group of Russian soldiers remained blocked on the plant’s territory. The spokesman stated that the number of Russian troops still trapped at the aggregate plant constantly decreases, with an estimated 40 soldiers remaining.

Although they can still receive small amounts of food and ammunition delivered by unmanned aerial vehicles, they are completely blocked and unable to leave. Sarantsev noted that these soldiers’ position is isolated from the main Russian force positions, as the Ukrainian army controls all approach paths to the plant.

In recent days, there has been an intensification of FPV drone attack operations on the aggregate plant.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Geolocated footage shows numerous attempts by FPV drones to enter the plant’s standing buildings, trying to detonate explosives from the inside.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

While images show success in some cases, in others, the drones were shot down by Russian soldiers just before reaching their targets. This sudden increase in Ukrainian activity at the plant, including both drone operations and the innovative ground drone attack described a few days ago, suggests, according to various analysts, that the start of a Ukrainian clearing operation throughout the aggregate plant area is approaching. The original, uncensored footage of these drone attacks can be found on Reporting From Ukraine’s Telegram channel.

Citadel area and Russian Army communications

Regarding the Citadel area, while there have been reports of Russian attempts to take positions in some of the high-rise buildings on the northern and eastern perimeters, Ukrainian advances have been confirmed around the adjacent streets to the south and southeast. This expands the Ukrainian control zone in the area and further compromises any Russian attempt to connect with the aggregate plant, suggesting that the Russians may have definitively given up on the aggregate plant and their next best option is to establish a stronghold in one of the citadel positions in an attempt to prevent the complete collapse of their defense in northern Vovchansk.

However, the most significant development has come from official Russian army communications. Official statements from the Russian Northern Group of Forces began in early August to describe their efforts in Vovchansk as “defensive” against what they termed a numerically superior Ukrainian force. Some analysts perceive this change in the narrative as preparation for a significant Ukrainian counterattack movement or even the possibility of withdrawal from substantial areas of Vovchansk.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

It’s worth noting that Russian sources themselves had confirmed on various occasions that they have evidence of the continuous accumulation of Ukrainian forces on the Kharkiv front.

Confirming all of the above, recent publications by military analysts, using open-source databases on geolocations over a one-month time window, confirm the slow but progressive Ukrainian advance in northern Vovchansk. They conclude that the situation is likely irreversible for Russian forces, which will soon only be able to aspire to maintain positions in the northern part of the city, above the citadel line.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Logistical challenges

Despite the continuous Russian artillery, thermobaric ammunition, and glide bomb attacks aimed at undermining Ukrainian logistics in their efforts to supply forces in Vovchansk, the better knowledge of Ukrainian terrain and the geographical possibilities of the area have been advantageous. The availability of multiple routes and crossings for Ukrainians has allowed them to maintain and even increase their superiority in personnel and equipment over the Russians.

Screenshot from Reporting From Ukraine’s video.

Overall, Ukrainian success in maintaining and boosting supplies of personnel and equipment in Vovchansk has led to the Russian withdrawal from positions south of the river. This failure of their operation to connect with the aggregate plant, coupled with the slow but progressive advance of Ukrainian troops in recapturing the city, indicates that Russian forces have long been unable to make advances and are now trying to fall back and switch to a defensive mode.

Potential withdrawal

Official Russian statements foreshadow a possible imminent resolution of the situation in Vovchansk, which could materialize in a withdrawal to the field-high areas north of the city. Lastly, the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory from Sumy Oblast could provide the perfect excuse for Russian command to divert resources initially prepared by the Northern Group for the Kharkiv fronts, forcing them to withdraw troops from Vovchansk for a temporary regrouping.