Ukraine F-16 Missiles Suggest Russian Targets Are Coming

The Ukrainian missile arrays observed so far suggest a primary air defense capability which can be expanded as experience and necessity dictate. JL

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

The air-to-air missiles seen at the unveiling of Ukraine's new F-16 fighter suggest "an initial focus on internal air defence sorties against Shahed/Geran one-way attack drones and cruise missiles."With air-to-air capabilities observed so far, the Ukrainians could also attempt to use its F-16s to target the Su-34 fighter-bombers dropping glide bombs or combat aircraft like the MiG-31 or Su-35. "The strength they're gaining is  the versatility of the airplane, The Ukrainians are very versatile at applying emerging technologies into existing systems or just creating whole new ones."

American-made F-16 fighter jets are at last flying above Ukraine, and some of the first images of the planes and their missile loadouts hint at what their starting mission may be.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published the first official imagery of the F-16s in action on Sunday, calling their arrival a "new phase of development" for the country's air force. Until now, Kyiv had only been operating an aging assortment of Soviet fighter jets.

Hype aside, top US generals, Ukrainian officials, and experts have cautioned that the decades-old F-16 won't necessarily be a game changer. It faces a difficult operating environment of Russian warplanes and sophisticated air-defense systems, and Kyiv simply won't have enough aircraft to make a substantial impact.

That said, depending on its weapons configuration, the F-16 can still be quite effective in certain roles. One video published by Zelenskyy on Sunday hints at what missions the new fighter jets could be flying against the Russians early on.

 

Shooting down missiles and more

The video shows a Ukrainian F-16 armed with the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, known as the AMRAAM, and the AIM-9 missile. Other imagery has shown the jets in this configuration as well.

This particular loadout, which does not include any air-to-ground munitions, suggests Ukraine may initially use its F-16s in an air-to-air role, as opposed to close-air support (CAS) or suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) missions.

Some airpower experts identified the AIM-120 seen in the video and other images as an AIM-120B, specifically a CATM-120B, which is an inert training weapon intended to reflect the real deal.

The AIM-120 is an all-weather, beyond-visual-range missile with active radar that makes it less dependent on the aircraft, but it comes in different variants with different ranges and capabilities.

A Ukrainian F-16 is seen on the ground at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on August 4. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Ukraine has the AIM-9M, a variant that has a range of 10 miles, and that appears to be what is seen in the video. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Ukraine would get the newest AIM-9X variant.

If the Ukrainian air forces were to get their hands on the AIM-120D and AIM-9X, the country's F-16s could fly with the most advanced US air-to-air missiles, giving them an improved air combat capability.

 

Next to the air-to-air missiles on the F-16s are self-defense Pylon Integrated Dispensing System Plus (PIDS+) systems, which have sensors that can help the jets detect incoming threats like enemy missiles.

The air-to-air missiles seen at the unveiling of Ukraine's new F-16 fighter suggest "an initial focus on internal air defence sorties against Shahed/Geran one-way attack drones and cruise missiles," Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, noted in a post on X.

 

And such a mission would make sense given Ukraine's current F-16 fleet size, Peter Layton, another RUSI expert, told The Kyiv Independent. He explained that "with only 10 [jets] — so say seven available daily for operations — using [them] for air defense against cruise missiles and Shahed drones seems reasonable."

Fighting other aircraft

A screengrab from Zelenskyy's videos shows, from left to right, the AIM-120 missile, the AIM-9 missile, and the PIDS+ system. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy/Screengrab via X

With the air-to-air capabilities observed so far, the Ukrainians could also attempt to use its F-16s to target the Su-34 fighter-bombers dropping fearsome glide bombs or combat aircraft like the MiG-31 or Su-35, but reach and Russian tactics make doing so a challenge.

 

Some Russian aircraft release munitions and then immediately pull away, making them harder to engage. For other aircraft, Ukraine would likely need to put its F-16s within reach of long-range Russian air-to-air missiles, like the R-37, as well as its ground-based air-defense systems.

Vincent Aiello, a former US naval aviator who flew the F-16, said that even though Russia operates formidable jets backed by tough defenses, Ukraine could still find ways to engage these successfully.

It's not always about the plane. "You can come up with tactics — whether it's speed, altitude, deception, jamming, whatever — where you can still have an advantage and hopefully knock out the enemy aircraft," he told Business Insider.

Ukraine's military leadership has signaled, though, that it doesn't intend to put its new fighters, of which there is only a limited supply, at great risk.

 

Ukrainian F-16s are seen in the air in an undisclosed location of Ukraine on August 4. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the country's new top general, told the Guardian earlier this month that the arrival of the F-16s would help strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. These have been greatly strained throughout the war. But he said Ukraine wouldn't want them too close to the front lines, where they would be at greater risk of being shot down.

A dynamic fighter

While Zelenskyy's video and the other images have only shown Ukraine's F-16s with air-to-air missiles, that doesn't necessarily mean the fighter jets will only be used for air engagements. Ukraine can also use them in an air-to-ground role, specifically targeting Russian air-defense systems, but these are much riskier, more complex operations.

Ukraine already has US-provided AGM-88 HARM missiles, or high-speed anti-radiation missiles, that can hunt down radar systems. Kyiv previously jury-rigged them on its Soviet-era aircraft, but they will be more effective when fired from an F-16.

Mike Torrealday, a retired US Air Force colonel who flew combat operations in the Middle East with the F-16, called the fighter jet a "very capable airplane."

 

"It can do all roles that are required," he told BI, "from surface attack, to air-to-air, to maritime attack, to any of that stuff."

A Ukrainian F-16 takes off from an undisclosed location in this photo shared by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on August 5. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy via X

"I think the strength that they're gaining is just the versatility of the airplane," he said of Ukraine and its newly acquired multi-role fighter. "And as I think we've seen, the Ukrainians are very versatile at applying all kinds of emerging technologies into existing systems or just creating whole new ones."

Aiello said that while the F-16 brings an increased capability to Ukraine's existing fleet, there is likely to be a learning curve because the country is so used to its Soviet fighters.

So far, Ukraine's F-16s appear to have only flown in ceremonial roles, as they did during a flyover on Sunday in a video shared by the country's air force. It is unclear when the jets will be used in combat.

 

At tens of millions of dollars apiece, F-16s are quite costly, and Ukraine does not have many to expend. Kyiv is likely to be more risk averse with its fighters, especially as it waits for more of them to arrive, but there's always the possibility of a bold play.

For now, though, the long-awaited arrival of the fighters in Ukraine is likely to provide the country with a critical morale boost as its forces continue to defend against the grueling Russian invasion.

"We have made possible what was our ambition, our defense need," Zelenskyy said on Sunday. "Now the F-16s are a reality, a reality in our skies."