The Strategic Opportunities Ukraine's Kursk Offensive Unleashes

Aside from the evident morale boost from seeing Ukrainian forces advancing unhindered as much as 35 miles into Russia, there are tangible tactical and strategic benefits to consider.

Ukrainian units are close to cutting a Russian rail line that supplies numerous Russian military sectors, including Kharkiv, Belgorod and Kursk. In addition, Russia could be forced to pull its remaining Kharkiv units back for fear of encirclement. But the broader Ukrainian strategic objective may be shock and awe: Russia's incompetence has been exposed - again - and Ukraine is demonstrating the capacity to end this war on its terms even as its helpful but cautious allies wring their hands and refuse to allow Ukraine its kill shot. This may present Ukraine that opportunity - and without anyone else's direct help. JL

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine’s western allies are not providing sufficient materials to win an attritional war.  If Ukraine can use maneuver warfare to inflict upon Russia an even greater loss ratio, this may be Ukraine’s opportunity. The most convincing goal would be encirclement of Russian forces near Kharkiv. Ukraine cutting into Russia can cut these troops’ supply lines and force these troops out of the Kharkiv area. (And) this may also be a roll of the dice by Ukraine to see if they can win the war before the US election.  There is no guarantee of the Democrats winning. Ukraine is taking fate in their own hands to create a downward spiral for Russia.  

After a long attritional phase of fighting in Ukraine, there is a possibility we may be now seeing a sudden switch to maneuver warfare.  If so, we could be in for a wild ride.

First off, let’s do the disclaimers.  This article is speculation.  Do NOT take anything in it as fact (unless clearly cited).  There is a news deficit on the Ukrainian side and what we are getting seems to be delayed by a day or two.  I am going off of online reports, many of which may be in error.  The reality of war is that quick news can often be wrong news.  Both sides have an interest in misleading the other side and hiding what information they can.

 

Second, this article is speculation.  I’m going to be walking through a variety of what-if scenarios and possibilities.  The most likely outcome of all this is that this is simply a smallish raid which had some unexpected success but will taper off quickly.  However, that’s not my jam.  I’m here to bring you the really big and outlandish possibilities.  I try to present what is possible and am greatly limited by a lack of details that the two militaries keep secret.  So on my big “what ifs” I have a high probability of simply being wrong.  So don’t be quoting me to others saying I’m guaranteeing anything.  My purpose here is not to report news but to convey why this has a potential to be a really big deal.

Finally, this article is speculation.  I claim no expertise.  Take my arguments and make your own decisions.  There will be plenty of people disagreeing with me in the comments section calling me crazy.  I’m used to this.  ;)

 

What do we know?

We know Ukraine has crossed into Russia near the Ukrainian city of Sumy in the direction of the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.  We don’t really know how far.  There are some geolocated pictures floating around so we know it has happened, but the available pictures don’t show a large incursion.  The pictures do show some number of people reported to be Russian soldiers who surrendered.  The most solid information shows nothing more than a cross-border incursion of smallish penetration.  However, less solid reports are suggesting something larger may be going on.

Why is Ukraine doing this?

Assuming this is a small raid the most likely purpose of this is simply a diversionary tactic in an attempt to get Russia to move forces to this area which would force them to remove them from other parts of the line.  We have seen similar maneuvers before with the Free Russian Legion (and related forces) having done a couple of these raids closer to Belgorod and Kharkiv .  They moved across the border, took over a few border posts, mixed it up with the local border guards, and retreated once stronger Russian forces arrived on the scene.  These incursions were quite small with just a few hundred soldiers participating.

 

There may be some other nearby objectives which are for some reason important to Ukraine, but I haven’t heard of any convincing ones (close to the border).  There is a natural gas facility some people are pointing out as a potential target, but at a quarter mile from the border it’s not convincing as if Ukraine wanted it destroyed, they could have done so without the raid.

So that’s the boring stuff and the most likely stuff.  Let’s loosen our cynicism for a moment and explore some larger possibilities.  Please note many of these are not mutually exclusive and there will be some overlap.

A REAL offensive push into Russia

Well, if it’s not a raid, what is it?  There are reports of Ukraine’s 22nd Brigade being one of the lead elements. A brigade is anywhere from 2,000 to 6,000 depending upon the country, type of brigade, and current strength.  If this is true, that’s more than the raids we’ve seen in the past.  Furthermore, the YouTube channel Ukraine Matters is hinting at there being more than 2 Brigades involved.  If that’s true, this is a major action and can do some serious damage here.  At the moment, I’ve seen no proof of there being any more than a few hundred Ukrainians.  But for the sake of speculation, let’s say Ukraine Matters is correct and we’re looking at 3 or more Brigades.

First off, where did these Brigades come from?  Isn’t Ukraine being pushed back in the Donbas and Russia is gaining ground at a faster rate than ever?  How could Ukraine have three extra Brigades if they are getting pushed back?  Wouldn’t they be better used on the defensive?  Well, it’s quite possible Ukraine is losing ground in the Donbas BECAUSE they moved these three Brigades north for this operation.  War is sometimes about tradeoffs.  If this is the case, then Ukrainian leadership are seeing some large potential in this operation which would make up for the loss of ground further south.  And we’ll get into that in more detail in a bit.  

Another possibility is that Ukraine is intentionally giving ground in the south to draw Russia in and hold their attention.  Russian military doctrine is to reinforce success.  So a smart enemy can use this against the Russians by giving the Russians success in an area of choosing to gain some advantage in some way.  Commonly, this might be to lead the Russians into a trap of some sort.  In the case here, it would be to tie up as many Russian units as possible in the south in order to maximize success in the Kursk operation.

 

Ukrainian force numbers and disposition is not common knowledge.  It is perfectly in the realm of the possible for Ukraine to have somehow freed up 3 Brigades of forces for this operation.  Is it likely?  Well that’s a fight for the comment’s section.

Second, how can Ukraine supply these Brigades?  Ukraine, just like Russia, is still fairly tied to rail systems.  There is a N/S rail line near this attack which goes through the town of Sudzha.  This rail line, being parallel to the front, is not immediately useful for Ukraine as it doesn’t connect to Ukraine’s rail system.  However, Ukraine Matters is also reporting that Ukrainian forces are near or in the town of Korenevo.  Korenevo is on a much more useful rail line which crosses into Ukraine near the Ukrainian town of Bilopillia.  Taking Korenevo first would cut off (some) supplies to the Russians between the two towns.  Then if/when Ukraine takes the territory in-between they will have connected a rail line to support their advance.  This rail line can eventually even connect with the line in Sudzha.  There is also a rail line which crosses the border somewhat south of Sudzha.  I have not seen any claims of Ukrainian movement in that direction but a rail crossing would be a valuable target.  The Ukrainians taking half of Kursk Oblast would be on the order of the Kharkiv Offensive, so certainly in the realm of the possible.  Hopefully more will be possible as ideally Ukraine learned from that offensive and will do even better this time.

Why start a full scale offensive in this direction?

Goals of a larger offensive might be as simple as taking territory to be traded for later.  Some people have pointed out there is a nuclear power station west of Kursk which could be a bargaining chip.  Pushing out in this direction forces Russia to pull troops from elsewhere to defend against this.  The larger the movement, the more troops which will need to be moved.  There are propaganda reasons Ukraine may want to do this.

The most convincing goal for me personally would be the operational encirclement of the Russian forces near Kharkiv.  As Ukraine Matter points out, Ukraine cutting into Russia can cut these troops’ supply lines and force these troops out of the Kharkiv area.  However, Ukraine has apparently kept a large number of troops in the Kharkiv area themselves.  Breaking contact with an enemy is an extremely difficult maneuver.  Furthermore, they couldn’t remove everyone anyway as then they would simply leave the door open for the Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv to move into Russia from that direction.

 

A large encirclement or destruction of a large number of Russian troops could have a ripple effect on the Russian army.  Until the Russians contained and stabilized the Ukrainian movements in Russia, Ukraine would continue to threaten to encircle or destroy every unit moving on down the line.  This is called defeat in detail.  It’s when a smaller overall force uses some advantage to isolate parts of a larger force into chunks the size of which the smaller overall force can defeat.  Because the larger force never brings their full weight upon the smaller overall force, they gain no advantage from being more numerous.  This right here is the danger Russia MIGHT be in.  If Ukraine can pull off the first operational encirclement then there is a chance it can cascade down the line.  This is the scenario which could end the war.  Is it likely?  Hard to know without knowing the size of the Ukrainian force potentially attempting this.  This would be maneuver warfare at its finest.

Even crazier Scenario?

I said crazier, not necessarily better and certainly not more likely.  But there are times in warfare when an army has purposely left its supply line behind to live off the land and roam free in the enemy’s backfield.  Sherman’s march to the Sea is a classic example from the US Civil War.  What Ukraine could do here is punch through the line with a sufficiently large force and then instead of attempting to hold ground or attempt an encirclement, they keep on the move driving ever deeper into Russia.  This would be HIGHLY risky but also highly damaging to Russia.  Assuming this putative Ukrainian force is large enough to deal with any local police forces and national guard units it came across, it would move as quickly as it could through Russia from one target of opportunity to the next.  Food would come from raiding civilian grocery stores, fuel would come from raiding Russian gas stations.  Ammunition would be harder to come by and might require raids on Military depots.  

If the force could move quickly enough and not be too predictable Russia would be forced to move a considerably larger amount of forces in to hem it in.  Russia couldn’t use an equal sized force because all the Ukrainian force would have to do is punch a whole in one direction out of the ring of forces attempting to encircle them.  Russia would have to bring sufficient units that the Ukrainian force would be unable to punch its way out of the ring.  While Russia was putting together this encirclement, the Ukrainian force would try to cover as much ground as possible destroying as many target of opportunity as possible.  Even if the Ukrainian force was eventually captured or destroyed, if they can tie down enough Russian units over a long enough time and do enough damage to Russia in the process, it may be worth the sacrifice.  The Ukrainian force might even have a small chance of winning back through to Ukraine or even the Baltics states or Finland.  But those in the unit would have to know their chances are slim.  So this scenario is a long shot.

 

You say you want a Revolution?

Ukraine may punch into these areas with a different purpose.  That is, if they have reason to believe they could kick off a Russian civil war by liberating a part of Russia that might draw enough attention away from Ukraine that Putin would have to have peace with Ukraine in order to pull enough troops back.  I have no reason to believe the conditions are ripe for this.  But Ukrainian intelligence might and this could be a possible goal for the action.

Why any of this now?

As I wrote in a recent article, Ukraine’s western allies are not providing sufficient materials to win an attritional war.  Ukraine is simply getting by, which is dangerous and risky.  If Ukraine can use maneuver warfare to inflict upon Russia an even greater loss ratio than they already are, this may be Ukraine’s opportunity to win despite allied support not being sufficient in many ways.  

Furthermore, this may be a roll of the dice by Ukraine to see if they can win the war before the US election.  There is no guarantee of the Democrats winning.  A Trump presidency would be horrific for Ukraine.  If Ukraine can take a chance to end this thing without taking too great of a risk, this attack may be in their best interest.  The Western Allies have made no clear movement to support Ukraine at a level to secure victory.  Even with a Harris victory in November, there is no guarantee of a congress willing to support Ukraine at current levels, let alone increasing to the needed levels to ensure victory.

It is my belief that Ukraine is attempting to take fate into their own hands here and win this thing soonish.  Or at least create a downward spiral for Russia which will eventually lead to a Ukrainian victory.  They are smartly attempting to reintroduce maneuver into this war which should be to their advantage.  I wish them all the best.  May this succeed beyond your wildest dreams (or my wildest dreams).