How Ukraine's Deep Strikes Offset Russia's Very Slow Ground Game
Ukraine's systematic campaign to degrade Russia's overstretch air defenses appears to be paying off as it attacked one of the Kremlin's most important air bases, which is over 300 kms from the front, inflicting significant and possibly long term damage to planes, maintenance facilities, ammunition storage and electronic warfare assets. And it appears to have done so with a creative and effective combination of drones and missiles.
Meanwhile, western mainstream media, focusing per usual on evidence of Ukraine faltering are now warning of the threat to Pokrovsk. But what their superficial negativity fails to note is at the current rate of advance and attrition, Russia might get to the damaged town sometime in October, if then, an estimate called further into question by the collapse of Russia's Kharkiv assault, which allows Ukraine to transfer more units to the east. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
As the Russians pull aircraft further from the Ukrainian border, Morozovsk housed many bombers/fighter-bombers as one of the most important Russian military facilities used to attack Ukraine. This week's attack shows high intensity burning the entire base - we assume ammunition stocks went up - and Russian aircraft damaged. With such extensive fires, maintenance and repair facilities would be destroyed. Ukraine found a way to circumvent Russian defenses to allow that mass effect against a target of high value. On the ground, Russia have advanced 7 kilometres in a month. At the July rate, they might reach Pokrovsk in October (or later) at massive cost. This is an historically slow and considering the losses involved, extraordinarily costly way to wage war.
The Ukrainians have done a deep strike into Russia, hitting one of the most important airbases of the Russian Air Force. It seems to have been a very large attack which has set off a chain of explosions.
Also, two other stories. First, turning to the US, this was probably the best week for Ukraine in 2024. A Trump victory has gone from a strong bet, to now 50-50 (and arguably lower). There is now significant hope that the US won’t abandon Ukraine come January 2025. Also, the Russians continue their small micro advances in the Donbas—here is how they are doing it and why the US election makes it a very costly risk.
Ukraine Strikes Deep: Morozovsk Burns
The Russian Airfield at Morozovsk, in Rostov Oblast has been something that the Ukrainians have been trying to hit for a while. As the Russians have pulled their aircraft further and further from the Ukrainian border, Morozovsk, home of the 559th Bombing Regiment has become a concentration point for many of the bombers/fighter-bombers being used to attack Ukraine, including SU-34s and SU-24s. Its arguably one of the most important Russian military facilities of any type being used to attack Ukraine.
However attacking Morozovsk has posed huge challenges. First is the distance involved. Morozovsk is about 300km as the crow flies from the closest Ukrainian positions—this map will give you some idea where it is (the red marker is the airfield and Bakhmut is about 300km away in a straight line.
Because the US wont let the Ukrainians hit Morozovsk with ATACMS (unless they literally changed US policy yesterday and what we have seen is the first of such attacks—which would be great), Ukraine has had to rely on its home grown UAVs or other ranged systems.
Still they have tried, with only moderate success until last night. They made large UAV attacks on Morozovsk in April and June—the latter attack seemed to have damaged some warehouse facilities. Here is Brady Africk's photographic analysis of the June attack.
Then, just a few hours ago, reports started coming in of a far, far more damaging operation. The airbase lit up like a Christmas tree—with many secondary explosions.
The NASA Firms (fire) data, shows some pretty high intensity burning up and down the entire base—we can assume that ammunition stocks went up, and the chance of Russian aircraft being damaged is very high. Moreover, with such extensive fires, the chance of maintenance and repair facilities being destroyed is very high as well.
In other words—this attack could actually take Morozovsk out of commission for a while as well as leading to significant aircraft losses, which would be a great development for the Ukrainians. What we will need to do, though, is wait for the pictures to come out in the coming days.
However, first impressions are that this is by far the most damaging long-range strike by the Ukrainians against a Russia airfield so far in the war.
That alone tells a story. The Russians knew Morozovsk was a high priority Ukrainian target and should have had pretty extensive defenses in place. Regardless, the Ukrainians were able to overwhelm these, probably with UAVs—though maybe with some of their own missiles. In other words the Ukrainians built and deployed the mass needed to carry out the operation. They found a way to circumvent Russian defenses to allow that mass to have effect. That they could do that against a target of such high value is extremely heartening.
There are a few other explanations that could explain the success of the attack—and none of them will make the Russians feel much better.
The first is that the Russians are running short of decent air defense (those Crimean losses could be adding up) and they simply did not have this major facility well defended. If the Russians could not spend the resources to defend such a high value facility, it is a massive indictment of the state of Russian air defenses—and a great sign for Ukraine as well. If the Russians cant defend Morozovsk from long-range strike, they must have other high value targets exposed as well.
The last explanation is that ATACMS were used. That would be hugely important, as the US would have had to allow Ukrainians basically open season on Russian military facilities in Russia. However, I will believe that only when its confirmed.
So, going forward this attack on Morozovsk is a great sign. The Ukrainians are showing the capability to manufacture, plan and execute effective far-range strikes into Russia. They could threaten Russian power generation in the way that Russia has threatened theirs, they can hit military facilities, transportation systems, etc.
This will mean Russia will either have to defend much more, or simply decide to risk it. We have seen the last winter what happens when vital infrastructure cant be defended. When Ukraine was starved of vital anti-air weaponry from the USA, the Russians launched their most successful campaign of the war—their attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russia will have to consider itself vulnerable to something similar this winter.
This was the week that showed the hope to defeat Trump was not just hope. Kamala Harris not only passed Trump in most national polls, she showed excellent strength in the vital swing states. She is now ahead, or very close, in the ones she needs to win including Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Even the betting markets (where Trump has been the strong favorite for a while) turned very rapidly, and now Harris is the betting leader to become president.
The good news is that Harris still has her VP choice (looking more and more like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro—she can read the electoral map). Even more importantly, the Democratic Convention doesnt start for two weeks. The Democrats have time to put together something special, and Harris will in many ways re-introduce herself to many of the undecided voters in her acceptance speech.
What does this have to do with Ukraine? Well, it means that they might be able to count on the continuation of valuable US aid in 2025. For all the hope that some people had been trying to spread about Trump—if you look at what he said, he was going to cut aid to Ukraine immediately. For those who don’t believe me, I put together this post a few days ago, which is Trump’s “peace” plan in Trump’s own words.
What this means is not only will Ukraine get aid, much of the underlying strategic rationale for what Putin is doing (these extremely bloody micro-advances based on the idea that Trump wins and he gets a ceasefire and to keep everything he has seized) is destroyed. Its a very different and far more worrying future for Putin if he has to face a Ukraine armed by the USA for the next few years. He will have both a soldier and equipment crisis—the latter probably by the end of 2025.
There is still a long way to go, and polls tend to swing. However even being pessimistic now and saying the race for the US presidency is 50-50 is better news for Ukraine than it has had for a while.
The Russians have now advanced almost 13 kilometres (8 miles) from Ocheretyne. Here is a Deep State map with the ruler so you can see.
Here is the same map exactly one month ago.
They have advanced approximately 7 kilometres or just over 4 miles therefore in a month. This is still an historically slow and considering the losses involved, extraordinarily costly way to wage war.
How are they doing it, well it seems to be relying on overwhelming firepower to saturate very small areas. The Russians are using glide bombs, artillery and UAVs in concentrated mass on these small areas, making them uninhabitable for Ukrainian forces and forcing a withdrawal. The Russians then advance into them with masses of infantry, but have no ability to exploit or breakthrough.
Many people are writing about the Russians aiming for Pokrovsk (see far left of the second map above). If so, at the July rate, they might reach the city in October (if later) at massive cost. Certainly if Trump were to win, there might be a strategic calculus behind the suffering of so many losses for so little gain. If Harris wins, this strategy is undermined significantly.
However for now, this seems like what the Russians will keep doing.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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