How Ukraine Surprised the Russians With Their Cross-Border Kursk Offensive

Ukraine surprised Russia with its cross-border Kursk incursion by attacking a sector its intelligence had identified as weakly defended by incomplete positions and poorly prepared troops. 

The result of hitting hard and fast in an area known to be vulnerable is that the Ukrainians have advanced as much as six miles into Russian territory, sowing panic among civilians and officials while causing consteration among Russian military commanders unprepared for such an attack. JL

James Marson and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine launched an armored incursion into Russia’s lightly defended Kursk region in a surprise move early Tuesday that caused panic among civilians and forced Moscow to rush in additional troops. The speed and suddenness of the Ukrainian operation appeared to have caught Russian forces by surprise. Kyiv’s forces swept into lightly guarded territory that had unprepared defenses and weak troops. “It's clear this is something completely new. This is a full-scale army operation.” The advance allows Ukraine’s army to impede Russian supply lines to its troops near Kharkiv. It also demonstrates that “Ukraine is not finished with cross-border raids, and that Russia shouldn’t sit easily in its own territory,”

Ukraine launched an armored incursion into Russia’s lightly defended Kursk region in a surprise move early Tuesday that caused panic among civilians and forced Moscow to rush in additional troops.

Russia evacuated villages near the border as hundreds of Ukrainian troops pressed forward in fast-moving armored vehicles, according to Russian officials. Russia deployed army units, border guards and warplanes to counter Ukrainian units and said Wednesday it had halted Ukrainian forces. Russian war bloggers close to the Russian military said Ukraine seized several villages and advanced several miles in two directions.

Ukrainian officials didn’t comment, but analysts said the move looked like a more serious incursion than previous cross-border raids in other areas, which were carried out by lightly armed commandos who withdrew after a few days.

“It’s clear this is something completely new,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of Moscow-based defense think tank CAST.

Russian officials said the Ukrainian forces numbered several hundred soldiers using Western-made Stryker armored fighting vehicles and tanks supported by drones, air-defense systems and electronic-warfare equipment.“This is a full-scale army operation,” Pukhov said.

The goal of the incursion wasn’t immediately clear. The number of troops involved is small compared with the hundreds of thousands deployed on each side within Ukraine. Ukraine’s defensive lines are creaking in places along a 600-mile front line against a larger and better-armed enemy. Russia is advancing toward the critical Ukrainian logistical hub of Pokrovsk and mounting withering assaults on the nearby city of Chasiv Yar, located on strategically important heights in the eastern Donbas region.

Troops in Ukraine’s east said the primary issue they faced was a shortage of men. “We don’t have enough people,” said a 26-year-old soldier in the Pokrovsk area, adding that his battalion had gone months without a rest, even though casualties had slowly depleted their numbers.

Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory

Russian forces as of Aug. 6

Russia

Belarus

Kursk REGION

Kursk

Direction of Ukrainian attack

Kharkiv

Chasiv Yar

Ukraine

Pokrovsk

Mol.

Mariupol

Odesa

CRIMEA

100 miles

Black Sea

100 km

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Andrew Barnett/WSJ

The U.S. didn’t receive advance notice of the operation, which is normal for a tactical move, said U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

The Biden administration has discouraged cross-border strikes, but in June permitted Ukraine to use some U.S.-provided weapons to hit military assets on Russian territory being used in an assault by Moscow toward the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

“Nothing about our policy has changed, and with the actions that they are taking today, they are not in violation of our policy,” Miller said.

U.S. officials said they were unaware why Ukraine had launched the operation and had reached out to Kyiv to learn more about its goals.

Initial U.S. assessments are that the incursion was a response to Russian cross-border attacks supported from the Kursk region, according to one U.S. official.

“It’s not possible for Ukraine to open up a second front,” said Nick Reynolds, research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They need to stabilize the front line in Donbas.”

Still, the speed and suddenness of the Ukrainian operation appeared to have caught Russian forces by surprise.

The advance could allow Ukraine’s army to impede Russian supply lines to its troops near Kharkiv. It also demonstrates that “Ukraine is not yet finished with cross-border raids, and that Russia shouldn’t sit easily in its own territory,” Reynolds said. Ukraine might be hoping that Russia will divert forces from the front in eastern Ukraine, easing pressure on Kyiv’s troops there.

An image taken from a footage released by Russia shows a drone attacking armored vehicles outside the town of Sudzha in the Kursk Region. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry/AFP/Getty Images

“It’s not clear if this operation will force Russia to transfer units from Donbas to the Russian border,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He added that the Russians already had forces and materiel deployed nearby, along the border of the Kharkiv region, which they could redirect instead of pulling troops out of Donbas.

At a government meeting Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Ukraine’s incursion “a large-scale provocation.” He then met with his top defense and security officials.

Russia’s top military commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, reported by video link that 1,000 Ukrainian troops had crossed the border in the early hours of Tuesday morning. He said that Russian forces had used airstrikes, missiles and artillery to halt them.

“The operation will conclude with the rout of the enemy,” Gerasimov said.

While senior Russian officials played down the extent of the Ukrainian advance, Russian war bloggers and volunteers close to the military railed against the country’s military leadership in online posts, saying that Kyiv’s forces had swept into lightly guarded territory that had unprepared defenses and weak troops.

They contradicted the official Russian line that the advance had been halted, saying Ukraine was sending in reserves to advance its attack while Russia would struggle to bring in additional forces from far away.

Russian authorities in the Kursk region, meanwhile, rushed to support thousands of people who evacuated from the border region in cars and buses. A government minister told Putin that the equivalent of $200 million would be allocated to the efforts. Doctors were dispatched from Moscow and other cities to help. All major events in the region were canceled.