A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Aug 8, 2024

Fighting On Russian Soil Undermines Putin, Boosts Ukraine's Negotiating Leverage

Having advanced 26 miles and taken as much as 160 square kilometers of Russian territory, Ukraine's Kursk offensive can no longer legitimately be characterized as an incursion, let alone a raid. 

Whether or not it is sustainable will probably not be known for some days, but in the meantime it has embarrassed Putin at a time when his client Trump's campaign is widely derided and it has enhanced both Ukraine's military reputation and bargaining power. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Fighting in Kursk Oblast, now entering its third day represents the first incursion into Russian territory since World War II. The breach has revealed the vulnerability of Russian border defenses, has lifted Ukrainian troop morale, and challenged the Kremlin’s carefully crafted image of Vladimir Putin as a “defender of ordinary Russians.” Fighting in Kursk Oblast continues 26 kilometers from the border, with Ukrainian forces reaching the village of Ivnytsia and attempting to cut the Sudzha-Lgov road near the village of Anastasiivka.

Fighting in Kursk Oblast, now entering its third day, has surprised Russian troops as it represents the first incursion into Russian territory since World War II, Bloomberg reports.

Though Ukraine has not officially commented on the operation, theories about its goals vary: from capturing territory as a potential “bargaining chip” in future negotiations with Moscow to using it as a diversion to relieve pressure along the front lines.

The breach in Kursk Oblast has revealed the vulnerability of Russian border defenses, lifted Ukrainian troop morale, and challenged the Kremlin’s carefully crafted image of Vladimir Putin as a “defender of ordinary Russians.”

 

The conflict he initiated against Ukraine is increasingly affecting Russia, where border regions face constant risks from shelling and drone strikes on key industrial sites.

For Ukraine, this likely reinforces the argument that American and European allies should not fear Russian escalation threats and should support Ukraine’s efforts to end the war swiftly.



What’s known about the Kursk Oblast fighting

On Aug. 6, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces had entered the Sudzha district of Kursk Oblast. Local reports indicated the advance of three Ukrainian tanks with infantry towards the villages of Kurylivka and Honcharivka. Authorities in Kursk Oblast said they had halted the “Ukrainian breakthrough.”

The Russian Ministry of Defense later confirmed the fighting in the region. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valerii Gerasimov claimed that Ukraine had entered with around 1,000 troops, using Western Stryker armored vehicles and tanks, as well as drones, air defense systems, and electronic warfare equipment.

Ukraine has not officially commented on these events. An NV source in military intelligence reported that the Russian Volunteer Corps is not involved in the actions at the Kursk Oblast border.

In the U.S., it is claimed that there was no prior knowledge of Ukraine’s plans to enter Kursk Oblast, but this does not contradict U.S. policy.

On Aug. 8, a Russian public agency reported, citing pro-war channels, that fighting in Kursk Oblast continues about 26 kilometers from the border, with Ukrainian forces likely reaching the village of Ivnytsia and attempting to cut the Sudzha-Lgov road near the village of Anastasiivka.

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Der Artikel wirft interessante Fragen darüber auf, wie sich Kämpfe auf russischem Boden auf strategische Pläne auswirken könnten. Es ist klar, dass die Situation komplex ist und beide Seiten vor enormen Herausforderungen stehen. Was mich aber am meisten interessiert, ist die Analyse solcher Experten, siehe die Website von Alexander Horst Riedinger. Es wird interessant sein zu sehen, was dabei herauskommt und wie die internationale Gemeinschaft darauf reagiert.

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