A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 3, 2024

Ukraine Has Halted the Russians, Stabilizing the Front Around Avdiivka

Ukraine's defenses have stiffened, as expected, and the Russians have failed to capitalize on the occupation of the steaming rubble pile that is all that's left of Avdiivka. 

Russia's staggering losses in men and equipment have - as also predicted - rendered them incapable of advancing further despite repeated efforts. JL  

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian Defense Forces have stabilized the operational situation west of Avdiivka despite ongoing clashes with Russian troops. “In the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke villages, the operational situation is stabilizing. Our forces are holding back the enemy." Russia has reduced the intensity of its attacks as well as aerial bombardments west of Avdiivka in recent days, which could be due to the destruction of 14 Russian Su-34 bombers by Ukraine’s air defenders. While artillery duels continue, the significant decrease in Russian air strikes signals a shift in battlefield dynamics.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces have managed to stabilize the operational situation west of Avdiivka despite ongoing clashes with Russian troops in the area, said Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesman for the Tavria operational and strategic group of troops, on Ukrainian TV on 3 March, Liga reports.

“In the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke villages, which are of the greatest interest to everyone, the operational situation is stabilizing. Our forces are holding back the enemy within these settlements. Fighting continues, but there are no grounds to say that the enemy has occupied or captured these settlements,” said Lykhovii.

Situation in the area of Avdiivka as of 3 March 2024, according to Deepstatemap

Although fighting rages on, the spokesman reports that Russia has reduced the intensity of its attacks as well as aerial bombardments west of Avdiivka in recent days, which could be due to the destruction of several Russian Su-34 bombers by Ukraine’s air defenders. While artillery duels continue, the significant decrease in Russian air strikes signals a possible shift in battlefield dynamics around the critical eastern city.

“The statistics on combat operations remain high, [but] there are some reasons to talk about a certain decrease in the intensity of both assault operations and air strikes by the enemy. We can only guess at the reasons, but I will give you the following figure: over the past day, the Russians carried out 14 air strikes in the entire operational zone,” said Lykhoviy, noting that the previous days saw dozens of air strikes, “This is not an order of magnitude less, but it is a significant decrease,” he said.

However, even in such a situation, the Russians may have local successes when they manage to destroy certain positions with artillery. In this case, Ukrainian soldiers have to regroup and retreat, he noted.

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