Russia's Gas Export Ban Reveal Ukraine Drone Strikes Impact Its Refining Capacity

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries across that country are affecting Russia's refining capacity, causing higher gas prices in an election year. 

And which, in turn, has caused the Kremlin to ban gas exports, denying it essential export income. The calculus appears to be that it is better to reduce foreign currency income in the short term rather than anger Russian voters, already reeling from war-driven price inflation, who are about to go to the polls. JL  

Alya Shandra reports in Euromaidan Press:

On 1 March 2024, Russia introduced a six-month ban on gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize prices in the domestic market amid rising demand. This suggests that Russia’s refining capacity may have been temporarily reduced due to multiple Ukrainian drone strikes against refineries. The export ban is expected to relieve pressure on supplies and allow Russia to make necessary repairs to its refineries. However, the repairs are likely to take longer than usual as Western sanctions have prevented the import of some essential components. The move may also lead to increased tensions between Russia and its trading partners, who may view the ban as a protectionist measure.

The UK Defense Intelligence has reported that on 1 March 2024, Russia introduced a six-month ban on gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize prices in the domestic market amid rising demand.

This suggests that Russia’s refining capacity may have been temporarily reduced due to multiple Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle strikes against refineries across the country.

The export ban is expected to relieve pressure on supplies and allow Russia to make necessary repairs to its refineries. However, the repairs are likely to take longer than usual as Western sanctions have prevented the import of some essential components, the UK Intel states.

The Russian Government’s decision to implement the export ban comes at a sensitive time, as the country prepares for the Russian presidential election. “The Russian Government will be particularly sensitive to rising prices for gasoline and other daily commodities in the run-up to the 15-17 March Russian presidential election.The export ban is likely to have a significant impact on the global gasoline market, as Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of the commodity. The move may also lead to increased tensions between Russia and its trading partners, who may view the ban as a protectionist measure.