Russia Unable To Advance Despite Manpower, Ammunition Advantage

As American author Mark Twain once noted about himself, predictions of Ukraine's death have been greatly exaggerated. 

Despite Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka and the plethora of articles that generated about Russian forces being unstoppable, Ukraine has, in fact, stopped them. And pretty much everywhere on the front line. And despite Ukraine's being low on artillery ammunition, as well as fresh troops. So as Europe, and the Czech Republic in particular, begin to deliver substantial new quantities of ammo just as Ukraine is advancing new legislation to increase conscription, the question is whether Russia has missed its moment through profligate waste of soldiers and equipment, to say nothing of ineffective leadership. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

On the front line, after the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, the front line once again has barely moved. There have been shifts of a kilometre here and there, but no breakthrough and no major Ukrainian withdrawal. This has happened even when Ukrainian artillery fire (because of the cut-off of US aid) is way down. The longer the line remains static the better now, as it allows Ukraine to build deeper and better defensive lines. (And) the Ukrainian campaign against Russian fuel refineries.once again shows Ukraine can be more effective with its ranged attacks using cheaper systems than Russia has been with its very expensive missiles.

In comparison to all the political maneuvering in western capitals, the war in Ukraine remained static on the front line, with the big development being the Ukrainian campaign against Russian fuel refineries.

On the front line, after the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, the front line once again has barely moved. There have been shifts of a kilometre here and there, but no breakthrough and no major Ukrainian withdrawal. The hopeful thing for Ukraine is that this has happened even when Ukrainian artillery fire (because of the cut-off of US aid) is way down. The longer the line remains static the better now, as it allows Ukraine to build deeper and better defensive lines.

(btw, Mykola discusses this in the podcast),

If the battle lines remain static, Ukraine increased the strategic war with attacks on Russian refineries this week, hitting a number of them (many hundreds of miles from Ukraine itself.

Smoke rising from a Russian oil refinery, on satellite imagery: https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1769007568456733178?s=20

This campaign, as I tried to describe in this post, holds out real promise for Ukraine—but it will be very hard. It will require commitment, and large stockpiles. However, once again it shows that Ukraine can be more effective with its ranged attacks using cheaper systems, than Russia has been with its very expensive missiles.