Anti-Putin Russians Expand Their Attacks For 5th Day, Cause Border Region Chaos

Russia is betting/hoping the anti-Putin forces' cross-border attack will peter out as local troops inflict some casualties. 

But as the groups seized yet another village inside Russia, Ukraine may begin providing more artillery and air support to force the Kremlin to divert already depleted units from the front line in Ukraine. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russian volunteer groups fighting on behalf of Ukraine continue their latest—and biggest—incursion into Russia’s border oblasts, a week after the groups fought their way across the frontier. The goal isn’t to seize ground: it’s to embarrass and de-legitimize Russian president Putin. But yesterday, the volunteers marched into Gor'kovskii, west of Kozinka, which they had already seized.With its military stretched thin sustaining a largely failed offensive in Ukraine, the Kremlin hasn’t been willing to shift troops to Belgorod and Kursk, hoping they will peter out. "These actions reveal the weakness of Russian forces protecting the border and their limited ability to respond to such incidents.”

A trio of Russian volunteer groups fighting on behalf of Ukraine on Sunday continued their latest—and potentially biggest—incursion into Russia’s border oblasts, nearly a week after the groups first fought their way across the Russia-Ukraine frontier.

The three far-right groups—the Liberty of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberia Battalion—infiltrated Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts in southwestern Russia overnight on March 12.

The Liberty of Russia Legion lost a T-64 tank to a mine at the border crossing into Tetkino, in Kursk Oblast, but still managed to eject Russian police and paramilitaries from the town.

The legion along with the Russian Volunteer Corps and Siberia Battalion meanwhile captured Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast, compelling local Russian authorities to urge civilians in the area to evacuate.

The incursions are consistent with what Piotr Żochowski, an analyst with the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, last year characterized as “subversive and psychological operation[s]” by Ukraine-aligned Russian volunteer forces that have been operating from Ukrainian soil since Russia widened its war on Ukraine two years ago.

The goal isn’t really to seize ground. Rather, it’s to embarrass and de-legitimize Russian president Vladimir Putin. It’s no accident that the latest incursions were timed to culminate on or around March 17, when Russia held its sham federal elections.

“Even if these actions have little military significance, they have revealed the weakness of the Russian forces responsible for protecting the border and, most importantly, their limited ability to respond quickly to such incidents,” Żochowski commented.

With its main military forces stretched thin sustaining a largely failed offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine, the Kremlin so far hasn’t been willing to shift significant formations—whole regiments or brigades—to Belgorod and Kursk to meet the pro-Ukrainian Russian groups.

“Russia uses conscripts to defend its border with Ukraine against limited incursions,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. The group “assessed that this is likely due to Russia’s unwillingness to transfer forces away from the front line elsewhere in Ukraine.”

Moscow apparently is gambling that a few under-trained local troops can offer just enough resistance to deplete the volunteer groups. The groups aren’t terribly large—just a few hundred men apiece—and lack deep logistical support as they operate separately from the Ukrainian armed forces. Instead, they answer to the intelligence directorate in Kyiv, but only loosely.

It’s not clear yet whether the Kremlin’s gamble will pay off. On Sunday, according to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, local Russian forces blocked further advances by the pro-Ukraine volunteers north of Kozinka. But at the same time, the volunteers marched into Gor'kovskii, west of Kozinka.

Kyiv like Moscow isn’t devoting a whole lot of resources to the border operations. What the anti-Putin Russians achieve, they achieve at their own initiative and with minimal government support.

But the intelligence directorate is impressed with the depth and endurance of the latest incursions. “There is no doubt they are hitting their stride,” Ukrainian intel chief Kyrylo Budanov said about the volunteers on Saturday. “We’re going to try and help them as much as we can.”

It’s possible the intelligence directorate is helping to coordinate military air support for the volunteers’ attacks. On Sunday, Russian air-defenses apparently shot down a Ukrainian army Hind attack helicopter in Sumy Oblast, on the Ukraine side of the border just opposite Kozinka.