Why Russian Transport Plane Shoot Down Looks Suspicious, Like Disinformation

There are several equally unsavory explanations for the shooting down of the Russian transport plane. One is that it contained missiles, as Ukraine claims, but not Ukrainian prisoners and that the Russians are simply making it up to try to deny the destruction of more planes and weapons while sowing discord.

A second is that the Russians intentionally placed Ukrainian prisoners on the plane with the weapons as human shields but did not provide the usual notification not to shoot over that route, knowing the Ukrainians might shoot it down, giving them a propaganda point while killing Ukrainians. There are reports that Russian VIPs scheduled to accompany the missiles were prevented by the FSB from boarding the plane at the last minute, which would further confirm its use as a trap. So far there have been no pictures of bodies beyond those of the plane's crew - and rescue workers have been kept away from the crash site. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine says that the Il-76 plane that crashed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast the day before was supposed to carry Russian officials, but at the last minute, the FSB forbade them to board. A prisoner swap had been due to take place on Wednesday, (but Ukraine did not received customary notification of their transport over that area). After the incident, only five bodies - the number of crew members of the Il-76  - were delivered to the local morgue. Video from the crash site does not show human remains. Rescue workers were not allowed to inspect the crash site. Ukraine says the aircraft was a military target and was carrying ammunition (missiles) for the Russian army.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has stated that the Il-76 plane that crashed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast the day before was supposed to carry Russian officials on board, but at the last minute, the FSB forbade them to board. After the incident, only five bodies were delivered to the local morgue.

Source: Andrii Yusov, representative of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), in a comment to Radio Liberty on 25 January

Details: Yusov said that Ukrainian intelligence became aware of this after the crash of the Il-76.

He added that Russian rescue workers were not allowed to inspect the crash site.

Quote: "Several VIPs on board from the military and political representation of the aggressor state were supposed to be on that aircraft. Their names are known and will be revealed, and the materials will be provided as part of the international investigation.

But at the last moment, the FSB essentially ordered them not to get on board and to use other means of transport. This information was established only after the incident occurred.

Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations who arrived at the scene were basically kicked out by representatives of the FSB and the military, and they were not allowed to inspect the site and locate the wreckage, according to the protocol."

Details: Yusov also pointed out that the video from the crash site does not show the remains of human bodies. And according to intelligence data, only five bodies were delivered to the local morgue in Belgorod the day before.

This number, in fact, corresponds to the number of crew members of the Il-76 – the same aircraft that was part of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Yusov added.

Background:

• A Russian Il-76 aircraft has crashed in the Korocha district of Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Sources in the General Staff stated the plane was carrying S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.
• Following the downing of the Il-76, a number of Russian media outlets cited Andrei Kartapolov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defence, who claimed that the plane contained dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war who were being transported for a prisoner swap. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that he was looking into the situation.
• A few hours after the information about the downing of the Il-76 appeared, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released a statement hinting that the aircraft was a military target and was carrying ammunition for the Russian army. 
• Defence Intelligence of Ukraine commented that a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine had been due to take place on Wednesday, 24 January.  At the same time, Defence Intelligence noted that it had no information on whether Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board.
• The White House said it did not have enough information to determine what happened to the Il-76.