A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 15, 2024

Ukrainian Drones Are Disrupting Attempted Russian Troop Rotations

One of the lessons armies are learning from the Ukraine war is that there is no longer such a thing as 'behind the lines.'

Drone's vision and reach make all of the territory up to and including the front vulnerable to attack. As the Russians attempt to bring up reserves in order to replace exhausted and depleted units, those replacements are coming under drone and artillery attack before they even leave their assembly points, let alone their transport. The result is that some replacements have to be replaced themselves. JL 

Critical Threats reports:

The frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast is “buzzing like a bee hive” due to the large number of Ukrainian drones operating. Ukrainian forces devote half a dozen drones to striking each target in western Zaporizhia and intense Ukrainian drone use is complicating Russian personnel rotations. Russian forces will try to sustain or intensify localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine regardless of winter weather and terrain conditions but will be unable to make operationally significant breakthroughs.The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aviation is unable to operate in southern Ukraine due to freezing weather conditions.[7] Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin claimed on January 14 that the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast is “buzzing like a bee hive” due to the large number of Ukrainian drones operating, however.[8] Rogozin claimed that Ukrainian forces devote half a dozen drones to striking each valuable target in western Zaporizhia Oblast and that intense Ukrainian drone use is complicating Russian personnel rotations.[9] ISW previously assessed that freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely currently constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.[10] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative regardless of winter weather and terrain conditions.[11] ISW also assesses, however, that Russian forces will be unable to make operationally significant breakthroughs.

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