The Reason Russian Missiles Are Increasingly Less Likely To Hit Their Targets

Data reveal Russian missiles and drones fired at Ukraine are becoming less likely to hit their targets. 

Ukrainian air defenses enhanced with advanced electronic warfare capabilities explain part of the reason. The other is that components for the missiles, rockets and drones have to be sourced from the gray market due to sanctions, which increases the likelihood that they are of inferior quality. In addition the growing Russian use of Iranian and North Korean components, missiles and drones, which have a reputation for poorer design and manufacturing again, due in part to the difficulty they have in accessing higher quality parts because of sanctions. JL

Kateryna Tyshchenko and Valentyna Romanenko report in Ukraine Pravda:

Over 20 Russian missiles and drones failed to reach their targets during Russia's combined air attack on Ukraine on the morning of 13 January because they exploded mid-flight, landed in unpopulated areas, or met with an effective response from Ukrainian electronic warfare. The missiles are becoming less efficient and not reaching their targets. This is probably also the case with kamikaze drones. It is due to a combination of factors: the poor quality of Russian weapons and the effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic warfare.

Over 20 Russian missiles and drones failed to reach their targets during Russia's combined air attack on Ukraine on the morning of 13 January because they exploded mid-flight, landed in unpopulated areas, or met with an effective response from Ukrainian electronic warfare.

Source: Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda and during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "More than 20 aerial targets that the enemy used in their attack, apart from those 8 [destroyed by Ukrainian air defence - ed.], missed their targets. What does this mean? They must have fallen somewhere in the fields, exploded in mid-air, or been affected by Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. The results of repelling today's air attack are as follows.

There are only eight targets in the picture (i.e. downed), and these are the eight that were engaged by air defence using firepower.

Fortunately, Russian missiles are not only being countered by the Defence Forces: they are also getting progressively worse. We can see a deterioration. Kyrylo Budanov [Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine – ed.] has also mentioned that missiles are becoming less efficient and not reaching their targets. This is probably also the case with kamikaze drones. Let's hope that this trend will persist in the future. It’s possible that something is affecting this process."

Details: When asked which factor had the greatest impact on the poor outcome of the Russian air attack, Ihnat stressed that it would be inappropriate to disclose all the details of counteraction against the Russians. But he noted that it is a combination of factors: both the likely poor quality of Russian weapons and the effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic warfare.

Background:

• On the night of 12-13 January, Russian forces launched an airstrike on Ukraine using 40 assets, namely cruise, aeroballistic, aerial and anti-aircraft guided missiles and attack UAVs. Eight of the missiles were destroyed by Ukrainian air defence forces. The response by Ukrainian electronic warfare systems ensured that most of the missiles missed their targets, the Air Force explained.