So Few Eligible Russian Convicts Remain, Kremlin No Longer Offering Pardons

So many Russian convicts have been coerced to fight in Ukraine have been killed that there are very few left in the Russian prison system physically or psychologically eligible to do so. 

As a result, the Kremlin is no longer offering pardons, short enlistment periods and has reduced the financial benefits to convicted felons because it no longer can use large numbers of them. This also helps reduce the war's burden on the Russian government budget. Approximately 54,000 convicts were recruited, the vast majority of whom are presumed dead, killed in fruitless 'meat attacks' known for their suicidal nature and limited survival rates. JL 

Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Kremlin is no longer offering pardons to convict recruits and is significantly changing the terms of their service in response to the reduction of the pool of convicts suitable for Russian forces. As of October 2023 the Russian prison population was 266,000 people, a notable reduction of 54,000 prisoners from January 2023. The loss of convict recruits to attritional assaults in Ukraine and the short terms of their service contracts prompted the Kremlin to enact more restrictive terms of service in order to retain more convict recruits at the front in Ukraine and to relieve force generation burdens on the Russian federal budget.

The Kremlin is reportedly no longer offering pardons to convict recruits and is significantly changing the terms of their service, likely in response to the reduction of the pool of convicts suitable for recruitment into Russian force generation efforts. The BBC reported that Russian officials likely ended recruitment into “Storm-Z” units in August 2023 and began recruiting convicts into “Storm-V” units based on new contract terms in September 2023.[33] Russian officials previously recruited convicts through promises of pardons and six-month contracts, and “Storm-V” units reportedly provide no promise of pardon or even parole and extend convicts’ contracts indefinitely until the end of the war.[34] Russian officials likely extended the contracts on the basis of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization order as the Russian military does for mobilized personnel. The BBC reported that Russian military registration and enlistment offices formally release convict recruits in a procedure that is no longer legally equivalent to “parole/conditional release,” suggesting that convict recruits are legally still considered prisoners.[35] Russia has heavily relied on convict recruits to maintain a level of force generation that is roughly equivalent to Russian losses in Ukraine, and which is likely helping enable Russian forces to conduct regular operational-level rotations.[36] Russian officials reported that as of October 2023 the Russian prison population was 266,000 people — a notable reduction of 54,000 prisoners from January 2023.[37] The loss of convict recruits to attritional assaults in Ukraine and the relatively short terms of their service contracts may have prompted the Kremlin to enact more restrictive terms of service in order to retain more convict recruits at the front in Ukraine. The contract terms for service in new “Storm-V” units are far less attractive and may dampen efforts to recruit convicts, although Russian officials have routinely used coercive measures to force convicts to sign contracts.[38]

Russian officials may have also changed the status of convict recruits in order to relieve force generation burdens on the Russian federal budget. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on January 25 that Storm-Z personnel addressed a letter to Putin asking him to resolve a widespread lack of promised payments, payments for injuries, and documents on the expungement of criminal records for Storm-Z personnel.[39] Vazhnye Istorii reported that a response from a Russian military prosecutor’s office to a Storm-Z fighter stated that Putin’s recent decree promising single payments in cases of injury or death do not apply to Storm-Z fighters.[