Russia Lacks Enough Troops For Simultaneous Operations On More Than 1 Front

The latest assessment of Russian troop strength in Ukraine suggests Russia is usually able to replenish most current losses but is unable to build up sufficient quantities of men and equipment to mount large-scale strategic operations.

This is due in part to the severity of the losses they continue to suffer and to the fact that the Kremlin is afraid to further alienate the Russian population with a major conscription drive. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russia does not have enough reserves to conduct large-scale offensive operations in several directions at the same time. Although the Russian military is able to generate enough manpower to conduct routine operational-level rotations in Ukraine, Russian forces are not able to generate manpower at a rate that would allow Russian forces to quickly re-establish the operational reserves necessary for simultaneous offensive efforts in several directions. Russia does not have sufficient reserves (despite) mobilization measures are ongoing in Russia, like the current Russian crypto-mobilization campaign that relies heavily on volunteer recruitment and the coercive mobilization of convicts and migrants. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on January 17 that Russia does not have enough reserves to conduct large-scale offensive operations in several directions at the same time.[1] 

 

Skibitskyi stated that it is impossible for Russian forces to conduct strategically or operationally significant offensive operations without “powerful” reserves and implied that Russia does not have such reserves.[2] Skibitskyi noted that mobilization measures are ongoing in Russia, likely referring to the current Russian crypto-mobilization campaign that relies heavily on volunteer recruitment and the coercive mobilization of convicts and migrants.[3]

 

 It is unclear if Russia’s ongoing crypto-mobilization campaign has provided or would be able to provide the increased number of personnel that an intensified Russian offensive effort would require. Skibitskyi reported on January 15 that Russia recruits about 30,000 personnel per month, which the Russian military uses to replenish losses and form reserve regiments, and that Russia would need to conduct “mobilization” (likely referring to another “partial mobilization” like Russia conducted in September 2022 or a large-scale general mobilization) to establish a “powerful strategic reserve.”[4] 

 

Skibitskyi’s statements suggest that although the Russian military is able to generate enough manpower to conduct routine operational-level rotations in Ukraine, Russian forces may not necessarily be able to generate manpower at a rate that would allow Russian forces to quickly re-establish the operational reserves necessary for simultaneous offensive efforts in several directions.[5]