Why Russian Failure To Capitalize On Recent Gains Dooms Its War Effort

Wars started by invasion which last longer than two years almost always end in stalemate or defeat for the aggressor. 

Russia's abject failure to capitalize on its superiority in manpower and equipment has proven chronic, as its initial failure at Kyiv, last year's bloodbath at Bakhmut and this year's slaughter at Avdiivka have demonstrated. The most notable gain of the war was Ukraine's offensive retaking Kharkiv and Kherson a year ago - another signal Russian defeat. Informed observers seen no evidence this will change in the near or distant future. JL

Aila Slisco reports in Newsweek:

While Moscow's forces have continued to launch assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine, Moscow's failed to build on recent successes. Attempts to capture Avdiivka were being hampered by Ukraine continuing to control supply lines. After in capturing Marinka, Russia has been unable to capitalise and advance 'either westwards towards Kurakhove or south towards Novomykhailivka,"

The Russia-Ukraine war is at a standstill following Moscow's failure to build on a recent string of successes, according to a U.K. intelligence assessment.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in June 2023 has failed to deliver in attempts to retake significant amounts of Russian-occupied territory, while Moscow's forces have continued to launch assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine.

 

Relentless Russian ground and air attacks on Ukraine paid had some effect during the last days of 2023 and early 2024, with Russia gaining ground particularly in the eastern regions of Donetsk in Luhansk.

However, the British Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday that Russia and Ukraine had both failed in attempts take "significant ground" over the past week in an intelligence update posted to X, formerly Twitter.

"Over the last week, neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have taken any significant ground," the ministry's update reads.

 

"Despite progress in late December 2023 in capturing Marinka, Russia has been unable to capitalise and advance either westwards towards Kurakhove or south towards Novomykhailivka," it continues.

The ministry went on to say that the Russian assault on the Donetsk city of Avdiivka "remains Russia's key line of effort," while attempts to capture the settlement were being hampered by Ukraine continuing to control supply lines.

"Russia has made very limited territorial gains at a significant cost in both materiel and personnel," reads the update. "The northern town Stepove remains under Ukrainian control which secures access to the Avdiivka supply route. Russian attempts to isolate the town are unlikely

 

Both Russia and Ukraine have largely rejected the idea the conflict is at an impasse, with officials on each side of the conflict regularly working to spin battlefield realities in their favor.

 

Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of Kyiv's military, was quickly rebuked by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after arguing that the war was at a "stalemate" in November.

Despite his optimism, Zelensky has admitted that his country ultimately "will lose" to Russia if it loses its supply of military aid from Western allies.

Around $60 billion in U.S. aid remains held up by Congress, while another $54 billion from the European Union was blocked by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán last month

 

Some experts have suggested that Russia's advances at the end of 2023, the underwhelming Ukrainian counteroffensive and the slowing of aid all spell bad news for Kyiv.

 

Retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, the former supreme allied commander Europe, recently told Newsweek that Ukraine would eventually lose the war if its Western allies "don't do anything different than we're doing now.""If the West abandons Ukraine, it will fight valiantly, but tens of thousands more Ukrainians will die and eventually Russia will subjugate all of Ukraine, which will once again be a Russian vassal," said Breedlove.

"If the West chooses to give Ukraine what they need to win, Ukraine will win this war," he added. "This war is going to end exactly how Western policymakers want and desire it to end."