Kupiansk Ambush Of Russian Armor Shows How Ukraine Is Holding the Line

Ukrainian forces across the length of the front line have repeatedly thwarted Russian efforts to take more territory and, in some areas, have seized more themselves. 

The reason is that the Ukrainians have become increasingly skilled at setting ambushes - in the sky against Russian bombers, in the Black Sea against the Russian fleet - and on land against numerous but poorly trained and equipped Russian troops. JL 

Isabel Coles reports in the Wall Street Journal:

As Russian armored vehicles emerged from a forest in northeastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian unit was waiting to launch the kind of ambush helping resist Russian efforts to grab territory. An antitank missile slammed into the lead vehicle. A Ukrainian drone dropped explosives on the rear vehicle, blocking escape. Infantry (were hit) by explosives dropped by drones. The two remaining vehicles triggered mines. Cluster munitions rained down. Well-laid defenses such as these that are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, who have made little progress. The rout was all in a day’s work. "We were prepared."

As the column of Russian armored vehicles emerged from a forest in northeastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian unit was waiting to launch the kind of ambush that is helping resist Russian efforts to grab more chunks of territory.

The four Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles followed a narrow path through a minefield, past the charred remains of other Russian machines that had tried and failed to reach the small village of Synkivka before them.

Then, the Ukrainians struck. An antitank missile slammed into the lead vehicle. The rest of the column kept advancing anyway. By the time they decided to backtrack, it was too late. A Ukrainian drone dropped explosives on the rear vehicle, blocking the escape of the two surviving machines. Infantry bailed out of the vehicles and made for a clump of bare trees offering scant cover from explosives dropped by drones that swooped in. Maneuvering desperately to get away, the two remaining vehicles triggered mines. Cluster munitions rained down around them.

It is well-laid defenses such as these that are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces seeking a breakthrough as the war approaches its third year. The rout, captured on film by a Ukrainian drone, was all in a day’s work for the 2nd Battalion of Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade, the unit’s commander said. The Wall Street Journal reviewed raw footage of the battle and spoke to the commander of the battalion and open-source intelligence analysts who analyzed Russia’s moves. 

“We were prepared,” said the commander, who oversaw the battle on a screen in a nearby bunker.

His battalion has been fending off daily attacks like this one since Russian forces went on the offensive last fall. So far, they have made little progress toward their aim of seizing Synkivka, which would put them closer to the city of Kupyansk.

The meager gains demonstrate how hard it is to break through a front line that has hardly moved over the past year. Ukrainian forces are largely holding the line, even as their enemy enjoys a growing advantage in artillery. With Western support in question, Russia’s sheer size might enable it to grind through Ukrainian defenses.

But after successfully thwarting Kyiv’s counteroffensive over the summer, Russia is struggling to overcome many of the same obstacles that prevented Ukrainian forces from gaining significant ground. Dense minefields funnel advancing troops into enemy crosshairs. The proliferation of surveillance drones has made attempts to breach enemy lines near impossible. On a battlefield where everything is visible, an attacker can’t catch his enemy off guard, while tanks and other armored vehicles become easy targets.

That means that 2024 looks like a year in which any advances will be slow and costly, while both sides look to rebuild their forces with additional manpower and new equipment.

Russian military column destroyed

Russian forces as of Dec. 1

Area of detail

Kyiv

UKRAINE

Dnipro

Mariupol

200 miles

Odesa

200 km

Russian military column was destroyed in the vicinity of Synkivka

Synkivka

Kupyansk

5 miles

5 km

Sources: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project; staff reports
Andrew Barnett/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

“At this stage of the war, neither side has been able to establish a decisive fire advantage,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an independent military analyst who has toured the front lines in Ukraine.

Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment on the battle near Synkivka, but Russian war bloggers close to the military criticized assaults around the village, saying they displayed poor tactics.

The shape of the conflict’s next phase might ultimately be determined far from the front lines. One of the main problems for Ukraine is that while Russia is ramping up its war economy, Kyiv’s Western backers are faltering. A new military- and financial-support package is being blocked in Congress by Republicans demanding changes to U.S. border policy.

 

Last year was a disappointing one on the battlefield for Ukraine. Its forces retook only a handful of villages in a counteroffensive over the summer, losing thousands of troops that were trained and equipped by the West. Kyiv had hoped it would be able to dislodge Russian forces from some of the one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory they occupy.

At the same time, Russia expanded its control of Ukrainian territory by no more than 0.15% last year, according to calculations by Emil Kastehelmi, an open-source intelligence analyst with Black Bird Group.

Russia’s tiny advances reflect the poor quality of forces at its disposal, analysts said, as well as a lack of adequate training and shortages of certain types of equipment such as artillery barrels.

Kastehelmi, who studied the footage of last month’s battle near Synkivka, said it was “a very clear example of pretty much total tactical failure.”

There is little evidence that the Russian assault was preceded by accurate artillery fire of the kind that could scramble the Ukrainians’ defensive plans, he said. He noted that Ukrainian forces struggled with similar problems during their counteroffensive last year.

Unable to break through Ukrainian defenses, Russia is seeking to wear them down.

Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, compared the static, attritional fighting to World War I in an essay for the Economist last year, warning it would favor Russia. With time on its side, Moscow will be able to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine’s armed forces and the state itself, he said.

As Western support for Kyiv hangs in the balance, Moscow has secured supplies of missiles from Iran and North Korea while ramping up domestic industrial production. Russia currently has the advantage in explosive drones and electronic-warfare capabilities, which play an increasingly important role on the battlefield.

Ukraine’s military-industrial capacity is a long way from meeting its own needs. And after nearly two years of resisting Russia’s invasion, it is chronically short of infantry, which bears the brunt of deaths and injuries. Ukraine’s most highly motivated fighters volunteered early. Those who haven’t been killed or wounded often say they are exhausted. Russia, meanwhile, has a much larger population to draw on to replace its own heavy losses.

Unless more Western support for Kyiv materializes, some analysts say Russia might eventually be able to grind through Ukrainian defenses in the eastern Donbas region.

“With an artillery dominance for the rest of the year, the Russians could maybe take the rest of the Donbas,” said Michael Clarke, the former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank. “Probably the Ukrainians would not be able to prevent that on current trends.”