Following Avdiivka Failure, Russia's Kupiansk Offensive Already Failing

Having wasted massive resources in repeated attempts that failed to take Avdiivka, the Russians are now trying the same tactics around Kupiansk. Desperate to deliver a victory, however hollow, to Putin for his predetermined 'election,' these forces are already failing. 

Experts predict that the front lines will not display any noticeable shift as a result of this futile effort but that the Russians will again be short several thousand men and hundreds of armored vehicles. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russian forces aim to reach the Zherebets River (in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Forecasts (predict) that Russian forces would fail to achieve these objectives, and would be “completely exhausted” by the beginning of the spring. The Russians are unlikely to be able to translate tactical gains into wider mechanized maneuvers needed for significant advances that could capture more territory in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army and 6th Combined Arms Army have (launched) infantry assaults but have not shown the capacity to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 30 that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is currently ongoing and that Russian forces aim to reach the Zherebets River (in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[i] Budanov forecasted that Russian forces would fail to achieve these objectives, however, and would likely be “completely exhausted” by the beginning of the spring.[ii] Budanov’s statements are consistent with ISW’s observation that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along this axis since the beginning of January 2024.[iii] Russian forces have recently made tactical gains southeast of Kupyansk along the critical P07 Kupyansk-Svatove route near Krokhmalne and appear to be increasing assaults northwest and west of Krokhmalne towards the Oskil River.[iv] Russian forces will likely be able to secure additional tactical-level gains in the Kupyansk area but are unlikely to be able to translate these tactical gains into wider mechanized maneuvers needed for operationally significant advances that could capture more territory in Kharkiv Oblast and push to the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast administrative borders.[v] ISW has observed that elements of the Western Military District’s 1st Guards Tank Army and 6th Combined Arms Army are active in the Kupyansk area and have been able to pursue infantry-led frontal assaults but have not shown the capacity to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver since they were deployed to this axis over a year ago. ISW will soon publish a more detailed operational analysis of the situation on this Kharkiv-Luhansk axis.