A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 10, 2023

Ukraine Gains Ground Towards Tokmak And Bakhmut Even As Weather Worsens

Ukrainian forces continued their systematic advances in the country's south and east despite worsening autumn weather. 

The gains suggest that Russian forces can impede for a time but not stop the Ukrainian assaults on their prepared positions. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukraine has continued its counteroffensive operations and regained ground in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Bakhmut despite increasingly poor weather conditions. Ukrainian forces continue to attack Kopani. Russian sources admitted territory loss in this sector for the third day in a row. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainians  attacking Russian tanks with kamikaze drones when they appeared on the horizon almost 2.5 km away from the trench network. Russian analysts claimed the Ukrainians may soon breach Russian defenses and hit Russian forces in Nesterianka from the back.

Ukraine has continued its counteroffensive operations and reportedly gained ground in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Bakhmut despite increasingly poor weather conditions, ISW reported. There is a lot of good news from the Tokmak direction.

Map: screenshot from a Reporting from Ukraine video.

Here, the most intense clashes occurred between Kopani, Robotyne, and Novoprokopivka. Recently released footage from the area shows intense shelling on the tree lines by multiple launch rocket systems.

Map: screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The video shows that the target of the strike became multiple fields at once, which is a very large area for advancement.

MLRS bombardment near Kopani. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Some sources reported that the shelling was conducted by the Russian artillery in the area of Ukrainian attacks, which is consistent with the claims of Russian sources that Ukrainian forces continue to attack Kopani. Some Russian sources admitted territory loss in this sector for the third day in a row, indicating positive dynamics for Ukrainians.

Today, some Russian analysts started raising the alarm about the situation and even claimed that Ukrainians may soon breach the Russian defense and hit Russian forces in Nesterianka from the back.

Map: screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

However, as you remember, the primary purpose of westward advancement is to negate the possibility of a successful Russian flank attack, and even though Ukrainians have not cleared the whole elevated platform west of Robotyne, today it was confirmed that Ukrainians managed to destroy the Russian assault unit that tried to carry out this operation.

Map: screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The Russian flank attack came right along this tree line that leads to the extensive trench network between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka. Russians also decided to attack right when Ukrainians conducted another wave of attacks on Novoprokopivka, meaning that they were quite vulnerable. By the way, geolocated footage indicated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in this direction, as Russians were shelling the tree line right in front of the houses that Ukrainians used to move back and forth between positions.

In the meantime, Russians opened a sudden vector of attack. The goal of this attack was to establish control over the trenches, cut off the Ukrainian assault units in Novoprokopivka from the mainland, and then take them into a pocket and destroy. Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainian fighters from the 47th Mechanized Brigade were waiting for this attack and were completely prepared to face it.

Russian tank near Novoprokopivka. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainians started attacking Russian tanks with kamikaze drones when they just appeared on the horizon almost 2.5 km away from the trench network. The first Russian tank was destroyed, barely entering the area of the tree line that leads to the Ukrainian fortifications. Other Russian tanks and armored vehicles managed to get very close to the fortifications when the first-in-line vehicle got hit and immobilized. Russian troops realized that they were too far from the trenches and simply could not proceed with the assault and started running away in all directions. The tank behind saw that the assault unit was practically demolished and started turning around. A few seconds later, the tank was hit right in the engine and was immobilized as well. The last tank was stuck in between and tried to provide fire support from a distance, however, Ukrainians immobilized it, then targeted the crew that was running away, and once the crew was dead, they finished the tank.

Russian tank near Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

All destroyed Russian tanks are scattered along this tree line.

Map: screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Russians advanced precisely along the ridge of the tactical heights as predicted several days ago. Understanding the potential axis of attack helped Ukrainians to repel it and avoid a potential disaster even without having direct fire control over the road from the fields above.

But the work in the fields west of Robotyne continues. Today, a fighter from the 24th Assault Brigade reported that Ukrainians made progress on the flanks. Once the fields are cleared, any similar Russian attack in this region will end even faster and with more devastating losses.



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