Ukraine Expands Cross-Dnipro Bridgehead Due To Weaker Russian Defenses

Ukraine's advance across the Dnipro south of Kherson has two strategic rationales. The first is that forces the Russians to deploy troops from elsewhere to defend a lightly fortified area because the Russians did not believe the Ukrainians could cross the river in strength. 

The second benefit is that it may create a new breakthrough, especially if Ukraine is able to push the Russian artillery far enough away to enable the building of a pontoon bridge which could then support a larger offensive. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is expanding their bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro, south of Kherson. Krynka/Krynky is halfway between the (destroyed) Antonovsky bridge by Kherson, and Nova Kakhovka, the other bridge Ukraine destroyed to force Russia out of northern Kherson oblast. Russia doesn’t have any armor in this direction (and) there is no Surovikhin defensive line here, making a Ukrainian advance using light infantry possible. If they were able to push 10-15 kilometers, that would push Russian artillery back to allow Ukraine to build a pontoon bridge. Ukraine is forcing Russia to either reinforce Kherson at the expense of other fronts or lose ground.

Back on the ground in Ukraine, the good guys appear to be expanding their bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro, south of the city of Kherson. 

Krynka/Krynky is located roughly halfway between the (still destroyed) Antonovsky bridge by the city of Kherson, and Nova Kakhovka, home of the other bridge Ukraine destroyed to force Russia out of northern Kherson oblast. Nova Kakhovka was also important as the source of Crimea’s drinking water, but once Russia blew the dam, that’s no longer a thing. 

Ukraine has (maybe?) liberated Krisky

Kozachi Laheri, to Krynky’s west (I’ll use this spelling for now), has been periodically raided by Ukraine, but they have never attempted to defend any gains. Normally, we would assume the same for Krynky, except for that “liberated!” video. 

Still, the video seems fishy to me—it’s inside a building, so there’s no way to geolocate it, and liberation videos usually feature a triumphant defender tearing down the Russian flag and hoisting a Ukrainian one. We don’t see that here. 

But … 

On Friday, Russian war blogger Rybar released a map that specifically had Krisky in Ukrainian hands. (Look down to the bottom right.)

It would be nice to think that Ukraine is stepping up activities on this front. With Russian defenses tied up in the Zaporizhzhia front (where the Ukrainian advance is stalled for now), and its offensive forces getting chewed up around Avdiivka, there may not be much of anything in southern Kherson to stop a serious Ukrainian push. 

By some indication, Russia doesn’t have any armor in this direction, making a Ukrainian advance using light infantry (marines, air assault, and special forces) possible. If they were able to somehow push down 10-15 kilometers, and if they were somehow able to logistically support that spearhead (all of them big “ifs”), that would push Russian artillery sufficiently back to allow Ukraine to build a pontoon bridge. And if that happened? It would be magical. 

For now, I’ll stick with the more obvious scenario: Ukraine is forcing Russia to make a difficult decision—either reinforce Kherson at the expense of the other fronts, or risk losing lightly defended ground. 

There is no Surovikhin network of defensive lines down here. Russia assumed the Dnipro River was good enough to protect its flank. Now we get to see if that was a smart bet.