Russian Assaults Greatly Reduced, As Losses Become Too Much

Russian attempts at offense across the Ukrainian  front line have diminished significantly as the scale of their losses in men and materiel on top of the failure to gain any noticeable ground appears to have ended what has become Russia's futile, annual pre-winter effort to demonstrate a capability to make gains. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 Russian assaults split between Avdiivka and Verbove on Friday, all of them repelled. These attacks seem to be the smaller squad-level variety, unlike earlier this month when the attacks at Avdiivka began with coordinated armor, infantry, artillery, and air support. Ukraine is seeing renewed success (towards Tokmak possibly) tied to the recent destruction of helicopters by ATACMS long-range missiles at Berdyansk. The greatly reduced number of Russian losses is a good indication that Russia’s attempted assaults seem to have fizzled out.

The war continues with Russia making a huge number of assaults at Avdiivka, as well as attempting to retake ground it recently lost near Verbove in the south. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 45 Russian assaults split between these two areas on Friday, all of them reportedly repelled.

These attacks seem to be the smaller squad-level variety that Wagner mercenaries pioneered during their takeover of Bakhmut. Unlike earlier this month when the attacks at Avdiivka began with coordinated armor, infantry, artillery, and air support, none of these attacks seemed designed to create serious movement in the lines.

Deep State shows no movement in both areas, with Ukraine continuing to hold territory it liberated between Verbove and Robotyne earlier this week. Though it’s gotten little attention lately, Ukraine’s advance in this area moved their area of control over 1 kilometer, along a large section of the front line in this area. Their control also seems to have solidified, with Ukraine holding more trenches west of Verbove and eliminating Russian forces from a series of tree lines west of that town.

Most of the attention in the past weeks has focused on Russia’s attempts to capture Avdiivka, but Ukraine is seeing renewed success in the south. Whether this is tied to the recent destruction of helicopters by newly arrived ATACMS long-range missiles at Berdyansk isn’t clear—but it can’t hurt.

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The greatly reduced number of Russian losses is a good indication that, for the moment at least, Russia’s attempted assaults seem to have fizzled out. Ukraine is reporting no activity around Kupyansk on in the area from Svatove to Kreminna. All those efforts to “push Ukraine back across the Oskil River” have apparently gone quiet.