Putin Needed Asymmetric Answer To Ukraine Winning. Hamas' Israel Attack Resulted

Putin was losing had no way out in Ukraine. Iran feared the US-brokered Israeli-Saudi entente - and Hamas needed no excuse to launch a suicidal attack - all it lacked were more weapons and good strategic planning. 

Yesterday's attack on Israel is seen by an increasing array of experts as an opportunistic attempt to disrupt Russia's, Iran's and Hamas' enemies, even if it doesnt actually advance their own. But the strategic benefits are likely to be slim as the world is inclined to Israel a pass on brutally at the outset and this will merely harden the evident necessity of taking a tougher line with Russia and Iran. In Israel, the 'hands off' Russian operations in Syria and hesitancy about further destabilizing Iran are over for now. JL

Jan Kallbergin cyberdefense.com; The Intellectualist and Heather Cox Richardson all report:

The Putin regime needed to escalate without getting into a direct conflict with NATO, divert interest from Ukraine and wipe out any normalization in the Middle East, and end the US "borrowing" munitions from warehouses in Israel for Ukraine's needs. The ongoing Ukraine crisis reverberates in the Middle East, notably with Iranian-made drones employed by Russia in Ukraine, establishing a tacit link with the Ukraine conflict. Iran and Russia are allies whose relationship has strengthened considerably as the Russian war against Ukraine has pushed the two increasingly isolated countries together to resist Western sanctions.Jan Kallberg: Have no illusions. The attacks in Israel, killing civilians, and kidnapping of children and parents as bargaining chips are directed from Moscow. The Putin regime needed to escalate without getting into a direct conflict with NATO, divert interest from Ukraine and wipe out any normalization in the Middle East, and end the US "borrowing" munitions from warehouses in Israel for Ukraine's needs. Russia is betting on a larger conflict in The Middle East after Israel answered Hamas. Then Russia has ensured that the US is busy with other than Ukraine. Russia is on its way to becoming the same terrorist financier that the Soviet Union once was. Every terrorist group that wanted to kill Westerners had a checking account in Moscow. Russia invests in chaos and death to achieve its political goals. Terror is now in the game, and those who supported Ukraine become targets for Russian-financed terrorism. We are back in the 1980s - Russian/USSR money "outsource" to terrorists and warlords to sow chaos, death, and mayhem for the Russians' cynical goals. The violent escalation on October 7, 2023, orchestrated by Hamas and other Palestinian militant factions, indeed opened a grim chapter in the Israel-Palestine saga. The ripple effects of broader geopolitical dynamics, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the maturing camaraderie between Russia and Iran, seemingly exacerbated the fragile peace process between Israel and Palestine. The Intellectualist: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and The Web of Violence The offensive against Israel seems to echo a coordinated scheme among Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. A high-level meeting in Tehran last month, involving Hamas and Iran with Hezbollah's participation, unveiled a confluence of interests aligning against Israel. Iran, notorious for its support to Hamas, witnessed its Revolutionary Guard Corps praising the latter's offensive against Israel. Moreover, Hezbollah's admiration for Hamas's operation against Israel was publicly voiced. The Russia-Ukraine War and Middle Eastern Ripples The ongoing Ukraine crisis reverberates in the Middle East, notably with Iranian-made drones employed by Russia in Ukraine, establishing a tacit link between the Ukraine conflict and the Middle East skirmishes. The diplomatic engagements between Hamas leadership and Russia, including the alignment with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, hint at a broader geopolitical canvas with potential ramifications on Israel. Russia, Iran, and The Axis of Support: The aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine witnessed a blossoming camaraderie between Russia and Iran. Iran has transitioned to a pivotal military ally for Russia, evident from various military agreements and the shared utilization of military resources, such as drones, in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This evolving alliance echoes in the recent Middle East skirmishes, potentially hinting at a more coordinated stance against Israel. The Ayatollah's March Message A message from Ayatollah Khamenei in March 2023 underlined the themes of "Inflation control, growth in production," marking the Iranian New Year, Nowruz. While not overtly aggressive, it reflects Iran's broader economic and political narrative, potentially signaling its geopolitical stance and implications for the region. The Fading Echoes of Oslo The lethal escalation underscores the volatile security scenario in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, eliciting global calls for halting the violence and resuming Israel-Palestine dialogues. The attack, seen by Israelis as akin to their 9/11, coupled with Iran and Hezbollah's involvement, and the indirect linkages to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, casts a long, ominous shadow on the already elusive peace prospects between Israel and Palestine.

 

Heather Cox Richardson: There are serious questions about how the Netanyahu government did not see this attack coming. It was either a spectacular intelligence failure or a security failure or both, and it strikes at the heart of the Netanyahu government’s promise to keep the country safe. At the same time, the attack is making Israelis rally together. The hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have been protesting Netanyahu’s strengthening hold on the government have said they would come together in this dangerous moment.  

A number of countries, including the U.S., have designated Hamas a terrorist organization. It is backed by Iran, which provides money and weapons, and last month high-level Iranian officials apparently met with Hamas leaders in Lebanon. Today Iran praised Hamas for the attack. Iran has opposed the recent talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel about normalizing relations. Since the decline of Iraq as an independent power, Iran has viewed the combination of Israel, its main enemy, with Saudi Arabia, its main rival for power, as the greatest threat to its security in the region. 

Iran and Russia are allies whose relationship has strengthened considerably as the Russian war against Ukraine has pushed the two increasingly isolated countries together to resist Western sanctions. Former Russian president and deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said the attack was “expected,” and used it to accuse the U.S.

The Middle East, rather than Ukraine, was “what Washington and its allies should be busy with,” he said. “But instead of actively working at Palestinian-Israeli settlement,” he went on, “these morons have interfered with us, and are providing the neo-Nazis with full-scale aid, pitting the two closely related peoples against each other. What can stop America’s manic obsession to incite conflicts all over the planet?” 

Today’s assessment of the Russian offensive in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War said: “The Kremlin is already [exploiting] and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.”