Why Ukrainian Success On Robotyne-Tokmak Has Become So Important

Ukraine continues to grind away even as many journalists criticize Ukrainian forces, evidently for not moving quickly enough to keep the news cycle entertained (yes, we're looking at you, New York Times)

But momentum appears to quietly shifted to the Ukrainians, and especially in the central Robotyne-Tokmak access, scene of the now infamous armor failure of early June. The Ukrainians are now well within rocket artillery range of Tokmak, one of Russia's key logistic hubs for the entire war, and if the Ukrainians keep going at this rate, Tokmak will soon be in range of standard tube artillery. Which means it will no longer be a safe place to store, transfer Russian supplies. JL

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is putting severe pressure on Russian lines, relying more heavily on nimble infantry, hand-clearing minefields, clearing Russian trenches and fortified tree lines, and using artillery and tank fire to support those efforts. It’s not maneuver warfare, but it's getting the job done. Tokmak is already within GMLRS rocket artillery range. Tube artillery firing M795 rounds have a range of 30 kilometers! Much of Tokmak’s utility as a logistics hub could be significantly degraded by Ukrainian tube artillery sitting a couple of kilometers behind a Ukrainian-held Robotyne.

The last several updates (here and here), I’ve discussed the reasons Ukraine has failed to deliver a quick death blow to Russian forces in its current counteroffensive. That doesn't mean Ukraine has failed. It just means that it has had to shift tactics, and it is slower going. But they are still putting severe pressure on the Russian lines, slowly pushing forward.  

In short, Ukraine hoped that a show of force would quickly collapse Russian lines and break their fighting spirit. That never happened. The same weapons that have bedeviled Russian offensive actions—mines, drones, artillery, and anti-tank guided missiles—did a number on Ukrainian forces. 

Ukraine has also been hampered by insufficient combined arms training, so much so that they ignored the greatest advantage of their new Western gear—night vision capabilities—and attacked during daylight, in full sight of the enemy. And even so, they still couldn’t pull it off. Combined arms is tough, and it was unrealistic to think they could learn it over a few months. 

Yet there is a big difference between the Russian and Ukrainian failures. Russia, to this day, continues to suffer major losses as it is slow to learn from its battlefield disasters. Ukraine has had one big loss (early on, on the road to Robotyne), and a smaller one a week or so ago, and that’s it. Rather than follow up failure with more failure, Ukraine is quickly evolving and adapting. 

For one, that means no more massed armor. It’s just too difficult to get through that network of mines, drones, missiles, and artillery. Instead, Ukraine is relying more heavily on nimble infantry, hand-clearing minefields, clearing Russian trenches and fortified tree lines, and using artillery and tank fire to support those efforts. It’s not maneuver warfare, but it seems to be getting the job done. We’re not seeing an endless parade of videos of destroyed Ukrainian gear nor massive Ukrainian casualties. Every time Russian propagandists recycle images and video of one of the two battlefield losses, it means Ukraine is doing something right. 

As of now, there are three active zones, broadly speaking. In the southeast, Ukraine is pushing in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts in three separate directions: 

Yellow lines are Russia’s defensive trenches

The left arrow aims toward Melitopol, which is the most strategic city in the entire map, and Russia knows it. Look at all those layers upon layers upon layers of defenses on the way to Melitopol, outside the map down and to the left. And as of yet, Ukraine doesn’t seem to have reached any of those yellow lines anywhere. 

Ukraine advanced a handful of settlements in this direction before either losing interest or hitting too much resistance. Though if Russian Telegram is to be believed (I wouldn’t put too much stock in it), Ukraine made some incremental gains along this advance overnight. 

The middle arrow is in the direction of Robotyne, where Ukraine’s too big losses were recorded. Yet Ukraine persists, and Russian Telegram was replete with reports of a major Ukrainian attack in this direction—heroically repelled, of course. This is the second most strategic direction, as it’s on the way to Tokmak, circled in yellow in the map above. Russia has literally surrounded it with defenses given its importance. 

Why is Tokmak important? Most of Russia’s logistics in this entire front run through Tokmak. RO37 did one of his explainers about Tokmak. Go check it out. 

Ukraine doesn’t have to reach Tokmak to seriously threaten Russian logistics, however. Measuring from the northern edge of Robotyne to the southern corner of Tokmak, the distance is 27 kilometers. Tokmak is already within GMLRS rocket artillery range, but those rockets are scarce and expensive at over $100,000 each. But tube artillery firing M795 rounds have a range of … drum roll please … 30 kilometers! Well not regular cheap rounds, but extended range 155mm shells, reportedly costing around $8,000 each, are still a fraction of the cost of a GMLRS rocket. Much of Tokmak’s utility as a logistics hub could be significantly degraded by Ukrainian tube artillery sitting a couple of kilometers behind a Ukrainian-held Robotyne. 

The third, most eastern approach on the map above, is toward the port city of Mariupol. This is also Ukraine’s most promising effort. Not only have Ukrainian forces made some respectable headway, but as you can from the map, this direction features only a single major defensive line. 

Further north from this map, Ukraine is making headway both north and south of Bakhmut, and has occupied the commanding heights around the western part of the city. 

Just like I never understood why Russia expended so much effort in capturing the town, I don’t get why Ukraine is expending effort in retaking it. It’s strategically unimportant. My guess is that Ukraine is advancing around here simply because they can. Russia has heavily defended the southeast, so by threatening Russia’s beloved Bakhmut, taken at a frightful cost, perhaps Ukraine hopes to pull in Russian reservers. 

Moving up even further to the north, Russia has been going on the offensive around Kreminna and toward Kupiansk (remember that town?). The effort has been serious enough that it has likely required Ukraine to commit forces it would rather use in the counteroffensive. War can often be a game of chess.