The Reason Many of Ukraine's Most Elite Units Are Still In Reserve

As many informed and insightful analysts such as RAND's Dara Massicot, have explained, the primary purpose of the NATO trained and equipped Ukrainian assault battalions is to exploit a breach in Russian defenses, not to be used as a battering ram to open. 

The reason is that their training and equipment is too valuable to be decimated in initial attacks. They are being held in reserve so as to turn any potential breakthough into a rout. JL

RO 37 reports in Daily Kos:

While Ukraine committed significant forces to the fighting east of Robotyne, there’s no evidence that Ukraine committed its main force. The overwhelming majority of the losses (in the latest southern counteroffensive) are Soviet-era armored vehicles, and none of the Western armor that was committed to Ukraine’s main reserve forces has yet been seen in combat. The 82nd Air Assault, 117th, and 118th Mechanized brigades, 1st Tank Brigade, 25th Air Assault, and the 92nd Mechanized are elite brigades that have yet to be committed (about a dozen other newly formed Soviet-equipped mechanized brigades and territorial defense brigades are also in reserve). The best of the best appear to be being held back.

On July 26th, shortly after breaking through the first line of Russian defenses northeast of Robotyne, Ukrainian officials told the Pentagon that Ukraine was committing reinforcements to that area. Anonymous officials at the Pentagon excitedly reported that Ukraine was committing three of its best brigades and that this would represent a majority of the best troops Ukraine had left in reserve.

 

This was obviously big news and was broadly covered by the New York Times, the Economist, Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and virtually every military blogger, West or East.

 

Most sources continue to treat this as an established fact, but to those watching the fighting in Robotyne closely, something strange is happening.

While there seems to be no doubt that Ukraine committed significant forces to the fighting east of Robotyne, there’s no evidence that suggests Ukraine committed its main force.

For example, the elite Russian unit in this area, BARS-11, released a video showing Ukrainian APCs coming under intense Russian shelling and losing many vehicles.

 

Here’s what’s curious about these losses: the overwhelming majority of the losses are Soviet-era armored vehicles like the BMP1, and none of the Western armor that was committed to Ukraine’s main reserve forces has yet been seen in combat.

 

In addition to this Soviet-era equipment, two Bradley Fighting Vehicles and two Leopard 2A6 tanks were spotted in a disabled state in this area, but the 33rd/47th Mechanized Bdes are known to operate these pieces of Western armor, and both have been fighting in this area since the start of the counter-offensive, so their presence is unsurprising.

Oryx has yet to identify the loss of a single Challenger 2, Stryker, or Marder. There are also no new losses reported for the heavily upgraded T-64BM Bulats.

The significance of that is the cream of the Ukrainian brigades would likely include the 82nd Air Assault Brigade (Challenger 2, Stryker, Marder) or the 1st Tank Brigade (Leopard 2A4, T-64BMs).

Confirmed Ukrainian armor losses geolocated in the Robotyne region include

• BMP1s (old Soviet-era IFVs with minimal armor, widely used in the Ukrainian Army’s Soviet-equipped units).
• M113 APCs (the US-manufactured APCs of which Ukraine has received over 700, widely assigned to numerous Ukrainian units)
• T-72M1 Tank (One of the most ubiquitous tanks in Ukrainian service, Ukraine had 130 of them at the start of the war and received a further 200+ from Poland)
• Leopard 2A6 (advanced tank operated exclusively by the 47th mechanized, already operating in the area)
• Bradley IFVs (advanced IFVs operated by the 33rd Mechanized, already operating in the area)

Ukraine has remained tight-lipped about which brigades were sent to this area as reinforcements.

There were nine NATO-trained and equipped heavy armored brigades identified in the leaked Pentagon papers. The names of eight such brigades were identified in the leaked papers: 21st, 32nd, 33rd, 37th, 47th, 82nd, 117th, and 118th Brigades, with a ninth name being illegible.

Among notable veteran units that Ukraine started resting and retraining in Nov. 2022 were the 1st and 4th Tank Brigades, the 25th and 80th Air Assault Brigades, and the 92nd Mechanized Brigades all were removed from the front lines to rest and refit for the offensive.

About half of these forces have been deployed to the front lines since that time.

The 33rd and 47th Brigades are already operating around Robotyne. The 21st “Swedish” Brigade is reportedly around Kreminna. The 32nd is operating around Kupiansk. the 37th Marines are operating around Velyka Novosilka, alongside the 4th Tank Brigade. The 80th Air Assault Brigade was sent to Bakhmut.

There’s a little less clarity around a couple of other brigades. The elements of the 25th Air Assault have been spotted around Velyka Novosilka, but have not joined the offensive. Interestingly, the 92nd Mechanized drone operators have been seen making attacks in Luhansk, but the rest of the 92nd Mechanized’s presence in that area is unconfirmed and appears to have seen no combat.

That leaves the 82nd Air Assault, 117th, and 118th Mechanized brigades, along with the veteran 1st Tank Brigade, 25th Air Assault, and the 92nd Mechanized as elite brigades that have yet to be committed (about a dozen other newly formed Soviet-equipped mechanized brigades and territorial defense brigades are also in reserve).

Of these, the 1st Tank Brigade, 92nd Mechanized, and 82nd Air Assault brigades would have to be considered the best of the best. Here are their known equipment:

• 82nd Air Assault Bde: Challenger 2 tanks, Stryker IFVs, Marder IFVs.
• 1st Tank Bde: Leopard 2A4, T-64BM, T-64B tanks, BMP1 IFVs, MT-LBu APCs.
• 92nd Mechanized Bde: T-64BM, T-64BV tanks, BTR4, MT-LBu APCs,

The total absence of Challenger 2s, Leopard 2A4s, Strykers, Marders, or T-64s strongly suggests that these 3 elite brigades are not among the units deployed to this area. The only confirmed equipment loss in this area that matches with these brigades is the 1st Tank Bde’s BMP1s, but these AFVs are used in so many Ukrainian units that this is hardly identifying.

Assuming that Ukraine did, indeed, choose to commit multiple well-equipped and western-trained brigades out of its reserves, the 117th and 118th Mechanized (T-72M1s, BMP-1s, M117 APCs) appear likely candidates for who were committed as reinforcements to Robotyne.

While this may represent a commitment of a significant proportion of Ukraine’s precious uncommitted highly trained reserves, the best of the best appear to be being held back.