Russia Transfers Troops From Donetsk To South Ukraine As Reserves Squandered

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to press Russian defenses, new reports reveal that Russia has squandered most of what would have been its operational reserve.

This means that when Ukraine forces achieve any sort of breakthrough, there will be few or no reserve units to stop them, a situation for Russian defenders which NATO refers to as 'brittle,' meaning likely to break. JL 

Kaitlin Lewis reports in Newsweek:

Reports that Russia's military has repositioned nearly all of its eastern forces along the front lines in southern Ukraine may be a sign that its troops are "brittle," including along the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Some Russian eastern forces have been redirected to battles south of Bakhmut. "Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, while formidable, are not insurmountable. Russian forces in southern Ukraine have to fall back on prepared defensive positions without significant support from operational reserves if Ukrainian forces achieved a breakthrough."

Reports that Russia's military has repositioned nearly all of its eastern forces along the front lines in southern Ukraine may be a sign that its troops are "brittle," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW's assessment is based on its own observations as well as reports from Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets, who stated earlier this week that nearly the entirety of Russia's Eastern Grouping of Forces have been committed to fight Ukraine's counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, including along the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Mashovets also reported that some Russian eastern forces have been redirected to battles south of Bakhmut.

"The deployment of almost the entirety of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces and extensive [Southern Military District] elements to the frontline in southern Ukraine suggests that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine may be brittle," the ISW wrote in its latest assessment on the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine's forces have reportedly made incremental progress along the roughly 800-mile front since launching its counteroffensive campaign to reclaim Russian-occupied territory. The ISW reported Friday that Kyiv's troops made "significant gains" near the war-torn city of Bakhmut and are continuing their offensive campaign along the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border.

"Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, while formidable, are not insurmountable," the ISW continued in its Friday's assessment. "Russian forces in southern Ukraine would likely have to fall back on prepared defensive positions without significant support from operational reserves if Ukrainian forces achieved an operational breakthrough."

The think tank also referred to its previous assessments that Ukraine's forces are likely attempting to gradually "degrade Russian combat power in southern Ukraine over time, increasing the brittleness of the Russian defenses."

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that his charge against Moscow is "not fast," but reassured his Western partners on Thursday that Kyiv's forces were advancing along the front lines.

"We have the initiative now," Zelensky said during a visit to the Czech Republic. "The offensive is not fast, that is a fact. But, nevertheless, we are moving forward and not moving backward like the Russians. Therefore, I see this as a positive." Unrest reportedly continues among Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops after a new video surfaced on social media Friday that purportedly shows Russian soldiers refuse to continue to fight for the country over issues with payment and lack of support from the Russian military. Russian troops have repeatedly contested orders to fight along the front lines over complaints of being ill-prepared for battle by their commanding officers.