Ukraine is targeting Russian artillery - and doing so more effectively due to NATO training and weapons (including digital counter-battery radars) because that is the quickest way to weaken Russian defenses and demoralize its troops. JL
Kos reports in Daily Kos, image Zohra Bensemra, Reuters:
Russia's is an artillery-based army. Early in the war, Ukrainian defenders and cities were under relentless artillery bombardment, yet unable to strike back at the guns and rocket launchers. Over time, Ukraine developed better counter-battery fire. Counter-battery radars helped locate guns; drones pin-pointed their position; and longer-ranged Western precision artillery shells, HIMARS, and M270 rocket launchers became a deadly response. Increased killing of those Russian guns (means) Ukraine 371 tube and MLRS artillery kills, double their previous average. The result is mass attrition of Russia’s greatest resource. The more Ukraine degrades Russia’s artillery, the easier it will be to break through Russian lines.There’s much fretting about Ukraine’s pace in its counteroffensive, having liberated only a handful of small settlements despite two weeks of heavy fighting.
One of the reasons is certainly Russia’s bizarre decision to counterattack all of Ukraine’s gains, fighting in the open instead of hunkering down in its extensive network of prepared defensive emplacements.
But there is something going on that gives even better insight into Ukraine’s patience, and it’s reflected every day in Ukraine’s claims of Russian kills.
Early in the war, Ukraine would claim one to two daily artillery kills. It was frustrating, seeing Ukrainian defenders and its cities under relentless artillery bombardment, yet unable to strike back at the guns and rocket launchers causing that misery.
Over time, Ukraine developed better counter-battery fire: the ability to find Russian artillery and destroy it. Specialized counter-battery radars provided by its Western partners helped locate the guns; drones pin-pointed their position; and longer-ranged Western artillery, precision-guided artillery shells, HIMARS, and M270 rocket launchers finally became a deadly response. More recently, kamikaze drones have become another tool.
Remember, Russia’s is an artillery-based army. Without it, it has no offensive or defensive juice. A wall of explosive steel is the biggest impediment to any rapid Ukrainian gains. And Russia has lots and lots of guns. It has even pulled up old 1950s vintage tanks and is using them as artillery. It knows no other way to fight.
It is suicidal to advance under that kind of barrage. NATO doctrine calls first for air superiority (which means destroying both enemy aircraft and their air defenses), then close air support to destroy that artillery, before any ground troops advance. Ukraine doesn’t have air superiority, and wouldn’t even if they had received their F-16s by now.
Russia’s air defense network is about their only thing that seems to (mostly) work this war. There is no scenario in which Ukraine gets air superiority.
Until three or so weeks ago, the average number of claimed artillery kills averaged 10.5 per day. But as the Ukrainian counteroffensive ramped up in June, we saw something new altogether. Here’s the number of claimed artillery kills by Ukraine over the last two weeks:
June 6: 25
June 7: 22
June 8: 29
June 9: 38
June 10: 16
June 11: 20
June 12: 10
June 13: 20
June 14: 19
June 15: 11
June 16: 21
June 17: 25
June 18: 14
June 19: 18
June 20: 27
June 21: 33
June 22: 23
Ukraine claims it has destroyed 617 MLRS rocket artillery launchers since the start of the war. Russia reportedly had 900. Ukraine claims it has destroyed 3,941 tube artillery. Russia reportedly had 4,900 before the war.
Do we believe these numbers? I sure wouldn’t bet on Russia only having 1,000 guns left. But what I do believe is the increased targeting and killing of those Russian guns. In those 17 days above (3.5% of the 485 days since the war began), Ukraine claimed 371 tube and MLRS artillery kills, or 8.1% of their total claims. That is more than double their previous average.
What’s happening here makes perfect sense.
Ukraine advances to new positions, ejecting Russian forces. They counterattack, allowing Ukraine to destroy valuable men and equipment out in the open. Meanwhile, Russia does what Russia does best and puts up a wall of artillery. But it’s an ambush—Ukraine has clearly devoted extensive counterbattery resources to the front, immediately striking back at those Russian guns.
The result is mass attrition of Russia’s greatest resource. The more Ukraine degrades Russia’s ability to hamper its forces with artillery, the easier it will be to break through those prepared Russian lines.
A lack of air superiority makes the task harder, but Ukraine’s ability to improvise given the tools it has available is unmatched.
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