The Reason Russia Hit A Dead End In Bakhmut

Russia gained a smoking heap of rubble at the cost of most of their newly conscripted army, irreplaceable weapons systems and further fractured logistics.

The Russian army is unable to advance, let alone fend off Ukraine's local counterattacks, while the Ukrainians, with at least a dozen fresh, NATO-armed brigades will use the opportunity to launch a counteroffensive against the depleted enemy. JL 

Isabel Coles and Daniel Michaels report in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces costly 10-month assault has left them exhausted and hemmed in with little chance of advancing. Its forces appear unable to capitalize. Ukraine, meanwhile, is poised to strike back against Russian forces in a widely anticipated offensive, as it strives to recapture one-fifth of its territory from Russia. Russia now finds itself bracing for attacks when its forces have been severely depleted in Bakhmut, and by their own winter offensive that failed to make significant progress. The battle for also widened divisions within Russia’s military.  While defending Bakhmut cost Ukraine, Kyiv didn’t deploy to the city any of the brigades trained and equipped by Western allies in preparation for the offensive.

Russian forces have succeeded in taking control of the small eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Their costly 10-month assault has left them exhausted and hemmed in with little chance of advancing.

Since the battle for Bakhmut began last summer, observers have puzzled over why Moscow expended lives and equipment to destroy and capture a city with limited strategic value.

Ukraine also drew criticism for devoting resources to its defense of the city, but its leaders have said bogging down Russian forces there was worth the cost.

The protracted battle, in which thousands of Russian soldiers have died, has drawn parallels to past sieges, such as the World War II fight over Stalingrad, in part due to its apparent futility.

 

“Bakhmut is like Stalingrad because it has attained a symbolic importance far beyond its strategic significance,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Whether the price either side paid for the city was worth it will be determined by the next phase of the war.

Victory in Bakhmut has given Russia something to show for its efforts after months without any meaningful gain, but its forces appear unable to capitalize on it. Ukraine, meanwhile, is poised to strike back against Russian forces in a widely anticipated offensive, as it strives to recapture almost one-fifth of its territory from Russia.

While defending Bakhmut for so long cost Ukraine heavily, Kyiv didn’t deploy to the city any of the brigades trained and equipped by Western allies in preparation for the offensive.

Russia now finds itself bracing for attacks when its forces have been severely depleted in Bakhmut, and by their own winter offensive that failed to make significant progress. The battle for Bakhmut has also widened divisions within Russia’s military establishment.

“Yes, they’ve got almost the whole of the city, but at what price?” said Dmytro Kukharchuk, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade.

Rather than pushing on toward other population centers west of Bakhmut, Russia must now hold a shattered prize against Ukrainian forces dug into nearby hills. If Russian paramilitary group Wagner fully pulls out of the city as promised by its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, other forces will be needed to hold it.

With the capture of Bakhmut, Prigozhin said he had created an opportunity for the regular Russian army to launch offensives to the west.

However, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of localized counterattacks north and south of the city, regaining ground that took the Russians weeks to seize.

“The aim is to tactically encircle Bakhmut,” said a platoon commander from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, which is leading the counterattack south of the city.

Whether or not that goal is attainable, the counterattacks are preventing Russian forces from regrouping or deploying elsewhere.

The counterattacks around Bakhmut are one in a series of moves by Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for a broader effort to recapture territory seized by Russia.

While Russia and Ukraine battled for control of the last few blocks of Bakhmut, drones were striking targets on Russian soil, culminating in an attack on the Kremlin earlier this month. Armed groups backed by Ukraine staged an incursion into Russia last week in a major breach that will force Moscow to look at the security of its own borders. At the same time, Ukraine has been intensifying strikes on Russian fuel-storage depots and other logistics sites using drones and long-range missiles supplied by the U.K.

After ramming up against Ukrainian defenses in Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to surround it, squeezing Kyiv’s last supply route into the city. While Ukrainian forces mounted a desperate defense, the 3rd Assault Brigade was preparing to strike back to the south.

“We studied the enemy, exhausted him,” said a soldier in the 3rd Assault Brigade, which includes many members of the Azov Regiment that fought Russian forces in Mariupol last year, with combat experience and high motivation. “We identified their weakness, waited for the good weather and seized the moment.”

When the ground began to dry out with the onset of spring earlier this month, it became possible to deploy tracked vehicles that would get bogged down in winter.

As the 3rd Assault Brigade overran Russian positions south of Bakhmut, Prigozhin railed against Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade for losing 3 square kilometers he said had cost him 500 men to capture.

Russia is still mounting stiff resistance, soldiers involved in the counterattack say, and retains the advantage in terms of men and munitions.

“The enemy is not weak,” said Yuriy Fedorenko, the commander of a drone unit with the 92nd Mechanized Brigade, which has regained territory north of Bakhmut. While morale is low among some Russian units, Fedorenko said they were driven to fight by punitive measures taken against those who refuse to do so.

Fedorenko said his unit was successfully suppressing Russian artillery fire using a radar system supplied by the U.S., enabling them to pinpoint its sources to within 100 meters. In that way, they have knocked out Russian firing positions on the front line, while picking off their infantry with drones. “Then our infantry, armed, knocked them out of the trench meter by meter,” he said. “You have to burn them out of every position.”

“At first, the enemy was leading the game,” said a deputy brigade commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade. “Now the ball is in our hands.”