Why the Exodus From US Cities Slowed Last Year

Socio-economic cyclicality appears to have largely returned to US cities, resulting in more stable population statistics. 

The primary reason for the change from the height of the pandemic are fewer deaths due to Covid, more births combined with less out-migration and more in-migration to larger cities. The forces that have continued to drive urban growth for much of the past 20 years have reasserted themselves, especially as fears of the pandemic subside. And those who have moved, have largely stayed in the same metropolitan area, especially suburbs. JL

Paul Overberg and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Big cities lost fewer residents last year as more immigrants moved in, fewer people died and more babies were born there. After a sharp falloff in immigration at the peak of the pandemic, the latest data shows a revival that has helped bolster large urban counties, with about 500,000 net arrivals from abroad last year. A rise in births and fewer deaths also helped offset moves out of urban counties. From the start of the pandemic in March 2020, through December 2021, research shows 58% of households that moved from a central business district or high-density ZIP Codes in the U.S.’s 12 most-populated metropolitan areas landed in a suburb or exurb in that same region.

Big cities lost fewer residents last year as more immigrants moved in, fewer people died and more babies were born there, according to new census data that shows the urban exodus that gained steam early in the pandemic is cooling.

The suburbs of big cities and small and medium-size metropolitan areas continued to claim most of the country’s growth, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of population estimates released Thursday for the year that ended June 30. Rural areas and small towns collectively remained nearly flat.

The core counties of large metro areas had an estimated net loss of more than 800,000 movers to the rest of the country, but that was an improvement from a 1.2 million drop in the preceding year, the Journal analysis shows.

After a sharp falloff in immigration at the peak of the pandemic, the latest data shows a revival that has helped bolster large urban counties, with about 500,000 net arrivals from abroad last year. A rise in births and fewer deaths also helped offset moves out of urban counties, leaving their collective population little changed for the year.

 

The pandemic spurred a burst of mobility—some temporary and some potentially permanent—that accelerated pre-existing trends on where and how Americans live. Suburban areas have emerged as the clearest winners, often gaining at the expense of the core city they encircle.

2021–22 population change among the top

25 largest metro areas

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

–1%

–0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

New York

Los Angeles

Chicago

Dallas

Houston

Washington

Philadelphia

Atlanta

Miami

Phoenix

Boston

Riverside, Calif.

San Francisco

Detroit

Seattle

Minneapolis

Tampa, Fla.

San Diego

Denver

Baltimore

St. Louis

Orlando

Charlotte

San Antonio

Portland, Ore.

Source: Census Bureau

The changes that are taking hold have prompted cities to consider converting office buildings to housing and to rethink mass transit service that has lost many commuters between suburbs and downtowns. Bank regulators and investors are rethinking commercial real-estate investments as some office landlords default and some rents drop.

The New York metro area, the nation’s most populated, saw its population decline 0.8% in the most recent year’s data. The second- and third-biggest metro areas, Los Angeles and Chicago, saw similar percentage declines.

While suburbs grew collectively, some suburban counties in the biggest areas shrank, including Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

Ten of the country’s 25 largest metropolitan areas lost population during the one-year period. The gainers were all in the South or West, with the exception of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, which recorded a small gain after losing residents the year before.

Collectively, the populations of suburban counties and small and midsize cities increased 0.7% during the year. The search for more affordable housing is attracting many to these areas.

Counties with small towns and rural areas, which tend to have older populations, had a net gain of about 160,000 domestic movers. But that was almost completely offset by the fact that those areas had more deaths than births.

The estimates cover counties, but also include a handful of cities whose boundaries align with county lines. 

Central counties of

large metros

Suburbs of

large metros

Medium and

small metros

Rural areas and

small towns

Population

in 2022

100.2m

84.9m

98.7m

45.9m

+0.8%

Change from

prior year

+0.7%

+0.7%

+0.6%

+0.1%

+0.1%

2021

2022

0%

-0.8%

Source: Census Bureau

New York City halved the population loss it suffered from mid-2020 to mid-2021, but still dropped 123,000 people in the latest year. Its population has fallen more than 400,000 in the most recent two years, to 8.34 million, even as Manhattan swung from a 99,000 loss the first year of the pandemic to a 17,000 gain in the most recent year available.

San Francisco slowed recent declines, losing only about 3,000 residents, mostly because it lost fewer net movers to the rest of the country. Washington, D.C., shifted to a slight population gain after a small loss the previous year. Philadelphia’s loss doubled to 22,000, while Baltimore dropped 7,000, after losing 6,000 the previous year.

Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University who studies work-from-home patterns and has used U.S. Postal Service data to track movements since the start of the pandemic, said cities are seeing a “doughnut effect” with the hollowing out of city centers and growth of suburban rings. “What it shows is huge migrations out of big city centers mostly to the suburbs of the same cities,” he said.

From the start of the pandemic in March 2020, through December 2021, his research shows 58% of households that moved from a central business district or high-density ZIP Codes in the U.S.’s 12 most-populated metropolitan areas landed in a suburb or exurb in that same region.

Migration rates per 1,000 people

Central counties of

large metros

Suburbs of

large metros

Medium and

small metros

Rural areas and

small towns

2022

2021

5.4

5.3

4.9

5

4.3

3.5

3.1

1.8

1.9

1.2

1

0.7

0.4

International

2.4

-8.3

Domestic

-11.7

Birth and death rates per 1,000 people

2021

2022

11.6

11.1

11.2

Births

10.9

10.8

10.6

10.6

10.4

8.8

8.9

9.3

9.3

11.2

11.2

Deaths

13.9

14.1

Note: Data for Connecticut not included due to recent boundary changes.

Sources: Census Bureau (population, rates); National Center for Health Statistics (county classifications)

“Tech workers, bankers and managers in big cities are finding they are now only going into work three days a week and are happy to have an extra 20- or 30-minute commute for more space,” Mr. Bloom said. “The prices of properties in the suburbs of big cities have gone up a lot.”

Chris Porter, chief demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif., said that in the wake of the pandemic suburban areas are likely to continue to be growth areas for employment and far outer-ring exurban areas are likely to see more housing growth. “That’s where the land is available and you are seeing a lot of construction,” he said.

In metro Atlanta, for example, the core county of Fulton grew 1.1% while four edge counties—Dawson, Jasper, Lamar and Walton—grew at least three times as fast.

Seven of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas are in Florida. The Villages, a sprawling retirement community in central Florida, saw the fastest pace at 7.5% and is now home to almost 145,000 people.