Russian Winter Offensive Failure May Signal Another Change In Top General

Gerasimov has been loyal to Putin and poses no political threat to him, but the consistent failure of the Russian military under his command since the invasion of Ukraine suggests that his tenure as Russia's top general can no longer be tolerated. JL

James Bickerton reports in Newsweek:

It is "increasingly apparent" that Russia's winter offensive has "failed" in Ukraine. "On 11 January 2023, Russian Chief of the General Staff  General Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the 'special military operation.' Gerasimov's tenure has been characterised by a winter offensive. Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed. After ten years as Chief of the General Staff, there is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how far Russia's political leadership will tolerate failure."

It is "increasingly apparent" that Russia's winter offensive has "failed" in Ukraine, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

Russian troops are reported to have suffered tens of thousands of casualties in attacks in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, with a particular focus on the symbolically important city of Bakhmut, over the past few months.

Putin's generals are under increasing pressure to achieve a win following Ukrainian victories around Kharkiv and Kherson in September and November of 2022. The Ukrainian military is widely believed to be marshaling forces, including modern armor donated by western powers, for an upcoming counter-offensive.

 

The latest U.K. Defense Ministry update, released on Saturday, summarized Moscow's progress since General Valery Gerasimov took charge of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in January, replacing Sergey Surovikin.

It states: "On 11 January 2023, Russian Chief of the General Staff (CGS) General Valery Gerasimov took personal command of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

 

"Gerasimov's tenure has been characterised by an effort to launch a general winter offensive with the aim of extending Russian control over the whole of the Donbas region. Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed."

The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been conducted by both regular Russian forces and troops from the Wagner mercenary group, many recruited straight out of prison. On Wednesday, General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, described battles around Bakhmut as a "slaughter-fest for the Russians."

The British intelligence update continued: "On several axes across the Donbas front, Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties, largely squandering its temporary advantage in personnel gained from the autumn's 'partial mobilisation.'

"After ten years as Chief of the General Staff, there is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov is pushing the limits of how far Russia's political leadership will tolerate failure."