As Ukraine Received New Volunteers, Russia Tried To Bolster Its Depleted Forces

Ukraine has received enough volunteers to form three new brigades to be ready for its counteroffensive. 

Russia, meanwhile, has announced its semiannual draft which is different from the extraordinary fall mobilization. That will not be repeated soon because of the high casualty rates which have led to public opposition. JL 

Jeffrey Gettleman reports in the New York Times:

Ukraine has received more than 35,000 applications for a new force it is forming, the Offensive Guard. The plan is build a network of combat brigades that will work within the interior ministry alongside the regular armed forces. (And) Putin signed a decree authorizing a larger-than-normal spring draft. Although the new recruits are unlikely to be sent to the battlefield immediately, the draft will create a bigger pool of potential troops for Russia’s army, which has suffered immense casualties. Western analysts have estimated that about 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the invasion began

Russia and Ukraine are stepping up recruitment efforts to bolster their badly depleted militaries, another sign that both sides are steeling themselves for a long war.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia signed a decree on Thursday authorizing a larger-than-normal spring draft. And although the new recruits are unlikely to be sent to the battlefield immediately, the draft will create a bigger pool of potential troops for Russia’s army, which has suffered immense casualties, if the war continues for years.

Twice a year, including starting in April, the Russian military conscripts young men for one year of training and service. The target this spring of 147,000 is about 10 percent bigger than usual, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group that has been closely tracking the war.

At the same time, Ukraine said on Thursday that it had received more than 35,000 applications for a new force it is forming, the Offensive Guard. For several weeks, to entice volunteers, Ukraine’s government has plastered posters and billboards across the country showing tough-looking soldiers. The plan is build a network of combat brigades that will work within the interior ministry alongside the regular armed forces.

Officials in both Kyiv and Moscow have predicted that Ukraine, flush with recent deliveries of Western weapons, will soon launch a counteroffensive to reclaim territory lost in the east and south.

Western analysts debate whether Russia’s military, after suffering staggering casualties and depleting its weapon stores, is capable of mounting another campaign beyond the one it is sputtering through in eastern Ukraine. Western officials and analysts have estimated that about 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began early last year.

Ukraine does not publicize its losses, but Western officials estimate that since the war began, Ukraine has suffered more than 100,000 casualties.

Russia continues to rely on reservists, experienced soldiers and convicts who were eager to get out of prison to fight its war in Ukraine. But the Kremlin hopes that some of the new conscripts will stay in the military after their year of mandatory service.

The spring draft is different from the call-up, or “mobilization,” of 300,000 civilians that Mr. Putin ordered last fall. Despite widespread speculation that he would launch a second mobilization drive to replenish Russia’s frontline losses, the Kremlin this year has avoided taking such a step — largely out of fear of a public backlash, analysts believe.

The report from the Institute for the Study of War said it was unlikely that Mr. Putin would deploy the new conscripts to the front lines “due to concerns for the stability of his regime.”

Although he maintains an iron grip on Russian politics, Mr. Putin remains sensitive to public opinion, and at the beginning of the war he faced outrage from mothers of conscripts after some of the recruits were sent to the front lines despite his pledge that they would not be. He ordered an investigation, and analysts say that conscripts doing their required year of military service are not known to have been deployed to the front in significant numbers since then.

The institute said it had “not observed the Russian military use conscripts on any significant scale on the front lines since the first months of the war.