As Russia's Winter Offensive Fails, "Extreme" Artillery Rationing Need Blamed

Russia's shortages of artillery ammunition is being cited as a primary reason for the failure of its winter offensive. Despite the addition of hundreds of thousands of conscripts, many of whose lives were squandered in suicidal assaults against entrenched Ukrainian positions, the Russians have little to show for their expenditure of blood and treasure. 

And while the Kremlin has made a show of demanding a doubling of production, the harsh reality is that sanctions, corruption and incompetence make it unlikely they will be able to do anything other than surreptitiously purchase ammunition at inflated prices from North Korea and other rogue nations. JL

Matthew Luxmoore reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Artillery rationing on the front lines has been a major reason for Russia’s recent failure to make military gains in Ukraine, and Moscow is resorting to use of old munitions  categorized as unfit for deployment in the war. Western officials said Russian ammunition shortages have worsened to the point where extreme rationing of artillery shells is likely in force on many parts of the front. Shortages have hampered Russia as it continues its push to capture Bakhmut after months of heavy fighting, with Kyiv repelling constant assaults and gearing up for a counteroffensive.

Russia said it was ramping up production of ammunition for front-line forces in Ukraine as it continued its push to seize territory there despite suffering heavy losses and making little headway in months of grinding combat.

In a speech to top military officials on Saturday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the ministry and the government were constantly monitoring the supply of arms and ammunition to the war zone in Ukraine and were scaling up output at key enterprises of the country’s military-industrial complex.

“The scale of the supply of the most necessary types of ammunition has been specified, and the necessary measures are being taken to increase it,” Mr. Shoigu said in the televised meeting.

 

Mr. Shoigu has instructed Russian arms producers to double their production of precision-guided weapons, according to Russian state media. Earlier this week, he visited factories in two Russian regions. He was shown inspecting finished artillery, tank and mortar shells and consulting with managers about the rate of production and the military’s needs.

A shortage of artillery shells has been a major issue for both sides as the war enters its 15^th month and Russia places its economy on a war footing and steels itself for a protracted campaign. Shortages have particularly hampered Russia’s advance as it continues its push to capture the city of Bakhmut after months of heavy fighting, with Kyiv repelling constant assaults there and gearing up for a counteroffensive across the east.

Western officials last month said Russian ammunition shortages have worsened to the point where extreme rationing of artillery shells is likely in force on many parts of the front. Other European defense officials agreed with the assessment, with one stressing that Russia was working with partners including North Korea to buy ammunition quickly while it scaled up production.

Artillery rationing on the front lines has been a major reason for Russia’s recent failure to make military gains in Ukraine, and Moscow is likely resorting to use of old munitions stock that had previously been categorized as unfit for deployment in the war, the officials said.

In early January, Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov took command of the military operation in Ukraine in a bid to refocus the effort on military advances and oversee a winter offensive aimed at extending Russian control over eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

The U.K.’s Defense Ministry on Saturday said that through the heavy cost of this campaign, Russia had squandered the manpower advantage it gained after mobilizing 300,000 men into the ranks of its military in September.

The ministry said the winter offensive had effectively failed. “Russian forces have made only marginal gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties,” it said in its daily intelligence briefing.

As the war grinds on, Kyiv continues calling for an international tribunal to hold Russia accountable for war crimes in Ukraine.

In his evening video address Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated calls for Russian perpetrators to be brought to justice. Ukraine is marking a year since Russian forces withdrew from parts of the Kyiv region that they had occupied for weeks, leaving behind evidence of atrocities and torture of civilians.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, said Friday that Russian troops had committed more than 9,000 war crimes in and around Bucha, the city near the capital where evidence of mass atrocities was uncovered after Russian soldiers who had been occupying the area pulled out last March.

“The main word today is justice,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Justice for our country and all our people who have lost their relatives and close ones, or their health, home, and normal life to Russian aggression.”