What If Bakhmut...Never Falls?

We will not use the 'c' word: culmination. It means that Russian attacks have to stop because they are unable to continue. It's been used before at Bakhmut - and it was incorrect. 

But reports are emerging that Russian attacks have reduced dramatically in frequency and scope. And so the question now is whether Ukraine is prepared to counterattack on a large scale as it did early last fall around Kharkiv and Kherson. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Two Russian attempts to cross that river between the east and west parts of the city, shallow and narrow as it is, appear to have failed. Reports also suggest that Ukraine has pushed back Russian forces west of the city. Over the last week, the pace of Russian attacks being conducted on a daily basis has fallen from over 100 to 30. Even the relentless, wasteful daily attempts to drive armor across the fields to Vuhledar have stopped. So have wave attacks. That’s not a guarantee of culmination. The bigger question may be: If Russia's momentum exhausted, what then? Does Ukraine have the reserves and the equipment necessary to turn a culmination on the part of Russia into an opportunity?

WHAT IF BAKHMUT NEVER FALLS?

The idea that Ukraine might be holding fast to Bakhmut because they believe Russia is about to exhaust its forces in the area seems to have hit some news outlets like a revelation this week. The only possible response is provided in the immortal words of Billy Eilish. 

On Friday morning, there’s a good deal of excitement around claims that Russian forces seem to be culminating, not just in the area around Bakhmut, but essentially everywhere, all it once (Sorry, couldn’t figure a way to get an “everything” in there). Part of this comes from a prediction that seems to have originated with The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which said on Thursday evening that a decrease in Russian operations around Bakhmut supported their Wednesday claims that the Wagner offensive in Bakhmut is “likely nearing culmination.”

Meanwhile, at least two Russian attempts to cross that river between the east and west parts of the city, shallow and narrow as it is, appear to have failed. Reports also suggest that Ukraine has pushed back Russian forces west of the city, though it’s unclear if they’ve managed to improve access along that critical road through Khromove. 

There’s a reason ISW doesn’t get quoted here a lot, and it’s because they frequently make predictions of this sort. Or the opposite sort. And they are frequently wrong. They also regularly publish claims from Wagner, Russian military, or Ukrainian sources that lack confirmation and make assessments of territory lost or gained that don’t match reports from the ground. 

However, in this case, their assessment seems to align with something notable in reports coming from both the Ukrainian general staff and front-line sources: Russia is slowing down. 

Over the last week, the pace of Russian attacks being conducted on a daily basis has fallen from over 100 to 70 to around 30. Even the relentless, boneheaded, hideously wasteful daily attempts to drive armor across the field to Vuhledar appear to have stopped in the last two days. So have the wave attacks that were being conducted elsewhere.

That’s not a guarantee of culmination. It could simply be Russia gathering up ammo and men as they prepare to hurl themselves against the rocks again. However, it seems to match some of the chatter that’s been happening in Telegram channels over the last week. The bigger question may be: If Russia is halted and its momentum exhausted, what then? Does Ukraine have the reserves and the equipment necessary to turn a culmination on the part of Russia into an opportunity? 

That’s not just the many billions of dollars question at the moment; it’s one that no one outside a few in the upper echelons of the Ukrainian government is likely to understand. There was one helluva lot not to like about The Washington Post’s gloomy assessment of the situation in Ukraine earlier in the week. However, it’s hard to know what to think about the fact that the officer who provided much of the background for that report has since been demoted.

Is that a sign that Ukraine’s situation is fragile and that leadership in Kyiv is slapping down those who dare speak the truth about a shortage of trained soldiers to continue the fight? Or is it just a signal that military commanders who open their mouths to complain to the media about their wartime leadership generally find that the army still has latrines? I don’t honestly know.

But if Russia’s advance is crumbling, this could be the best time to invert that advance and make significant gains. Hopefully, Ukraine is ready.

---