Ukrainian Forces Have Counterattacked Around Bakhmut, Regaining Some Territory

Ukraine appears to be solidifying its hold on Bakhmut, continuing to suck Russian troops into the fight, as it prepares for its expected spring counteroffensive. JL 

Kos reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine had retaken territory around the T0504 road southwest of Bakhmut to relieve pressure on supply lines into the city. With reports that Russian advances north of Bakhmut have ground to a halt, it looks like Bakhmut’s defense is on steadier ground at the moment. (But) I’m no longer predicting culmination. Russia needs its victory, and this is as close to one as they’ll get. I assume they’ll keep feeding their meat into the wood chipper until they don’t, and so far they haven’t.

After spending two weeks arguing that Ukraine should abandon Bakhmut, unless Ukraine was able to counterattack and relieve pressure on its supply lines into the city, the defenders seem to have done just that in the last week.

 

After reports that Ukraine had retaken territory around the T0504 road southwest of Bakhmut, new video confirms the advances.

That confirmed counterattack is here: 

The T0504 road is Ukraine’s lifeline to Bakhmut. Without it, Ukraine has no choice but to retreat. Ukraine’s Bakhmut salient remains tenuous, as Russian forces hold positions all around Bakhmut:

But as you can see in the map below, by a pro-Russian source, this latest push southwest of Ivanivske gives the T0504 some breathing room, allows Ukraine to keep funneling supplies through that route. 

Blue arrows show Ukrainian advance

With reports that Russian advances north of Bakhmut have ground to a halt, it looks like Bakhmut’s defense is on steadier ground at the moment. I’m no longer predicting culmination, as many analysts suggest. I’ve made that mistake once or twice before, never again. Russia needs its victory, and this is as close to one as they’ll get. I assume they’ll keep feeding their meat into the wood chipper until they don’t, and so far they haven’t.

That’s all great news for Bakhmut’s defense, but perhaps less so for Ukraine’s future counteroffensive. If those forces are being committed to Bakhmut, where they will inevitably suffer loss and attrition, they can’t be later committed toward Svatove/Starobilsk in the north, or Melitopol in the south. 

There is one last possibility—those reinforcements could be creating the conditions for a Bakhmut retreat—protecting that key road and retreating defenders as their backs are turned to the enemy. Russia did the same before their retreat from Kherson, and did so effectively. 

Even if Bakhmut holds, the debate will continue to rage. There is, after all, a reason the phrase “pyrrhic victory” exists.