As New Armor Arrives, Ukraine's Counteroffensive Preparations Pick Up Pace
The Ukrainians are releasing increasing numbers of videos and photos of recently arrived NATO armor and other vehicles in Ukraine preparing for the counteroffensive.
While an element of psy-ops, it is apparent that the equipment is in country, being deployed and with the troops and supplies necessary for the next push. JL
Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:
Images have shown what appears to be a genuinely impressive number of
tanks, troops, and armored vehicles (including) a Leopard 2 tankoutfitted
with a set of extra reactive armor and a shield against
grenade-dropping drones, in Ukraine, sporting Ukrainian colors at locations in Ukraine, reportedly
preparing for the much-talked-about spring counteroffensive.If you’ve been waiting to see those Western vehicles actually in Ukraine, your BINGO card should be close to complete. This followsyesterday’s image of a Leopard 2 tankoutfitted with a set of extra reactive armor and a shield against grenade-dropping drones. And while this video of Ukrainian soldiers training on Challenger 2 tanks was made in England, images are circulating that also show them in Ukraine, sporting Ukrainian colors.
Recently, images have shown what appears to be a genuinely impressive number of tanks, troops, and armored vehicles at locations in Ukraine, reportedly preparing for the much-talked-about spring counteroffensive. The where and when of that Ukrainian assault is still unknown … unless, of course, Ukrainian officials are chatting about it on Telegram. If they are, let’s hope they’re engaged in a digitalOperation Fortitude.
How serious are those videos of an upcoming counteroffensive looking? About this serious. I’m particularly interested to see how Ukraine puts those AMX-10rc wheeled vehicles to use. No matter what the video below says, the French have used them essentially as tanks, not just as armored scouts. However, that was mostly in conflicts where opponents had no significant armored vehicles and in locations where the wheels gave the AMX exceptional speed and maneuverability. What role will they play on a battlefield where each side has over a thousand main battle tanks, and the ground is sometimes made of meter-deep chocolate pudding?
The issue with gun stabilization is real. If you have to stop, aim, and fire, it really doesn’t matter how fast you get into position. You’re likely to be shredded.
The AMX-10rc seems ideally suited to the role of “aggressive reconnaissance.” I keep thinking about some of those situations in the early days of the Kharkiv counteroffensive when, following the initial breakthrough, Ukraine had vehicles zipping around cities like Lyman and even Lysychansk but couldn’t put the force in place to keep Russia from regrouping in these locations. Maybe something like the AMX could turn such breakthroughs into even bigger breakthroughs by leading those aggressive recons.
As with so many other things, we’re likely to know how these shape up Real Soon Now.
BAKHMUT
Reports from Wagner Group, which were repeated in several locations, made it seem that Wednesday was going to finally be the day they took Bakhmut, with reports of “major assaults” in every direction and fighting “already at the city center.”
However, as far as can be discerned at this hour, Russian assaults at the north and south edges of the city failed to result in significant advance. Heavy attacks seem to be limited to the east and southeast edges of the Ukrainian-controlled area.
Detail from Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
Fighting in this area, which is just a couple of blocks from where Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin filmed a video at a captured school on Monday, has been going on at least since Tuesday afternoon. It’s really not clear at the moment if Ukraine still holds positions in these blocks or if Russia has successfully taken these blocks, which do include (largely destroyed) city offices.
Fighting is reported to be very difficult, but there are also reports that in recent days Wagner has been less effective in its ability to direct air strikes and artillery at locations before conducting an attempted advance. That may be another signal of the schism between Wagner and the military; it may be a sign that the military can’t assist because it’s short on materiels; it may be because some Wagner commanders have been redeployed to Avdiivka. And it may just be noise that means nothing at all.
THEY’RE SO SHINY
Let’s look at some more of that gear being laid out before people get it all dirty.
🇺🇸Strykers & Cougars are now in the capable hands of 🇺🇦Air Assault Forces. Took them for a test drive. I’m glad that the best soldiers in the world are getting the best vehicles from our partners. They will bring us closer to victory. Thank you to@POTUS@SecDef& all Americans.pic.twitter.com/AawMwbAkqm
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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