The Reason Russian Forces Are Abandoning Dnipro East Bank Near Kherson

Russia may be retreating to more defensible positions. But this may also be a signal that Russia is amenable to a negotiated settlement which leaves it in control of some of the territory it has seized in the past year. 

The problem for Russia is that it may be negotiating against itself as Ukraine clearly has plans to recapture considerably more territory than Russia may be willing to surrender after it launches its next counteroffensive. JL

Nick Mordowanec reports in Newsweek:

Moscow-installed proxies on Kherson's east bank are beginning to evacuate, "taking away documentation and looting" as they leave. Russia may be hedging its bets and trying to entrench its forces in comfortable defensive positions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. "Given Ukraine's expanding arsenals, it may become difficult for Russian forces to defend the left bank of the Dnieper. There may be more defensible strongholds further east." There are political implications. Those include Russia showing China, and Western supporters of Ukraine, that Moscow "is amenable to some kind of a compromise based on a territorial status quo that will leave Russia parts of the territory (it) seized from Ukraine."

Ukrainian military spokesperson is claiming that Russians are beginning to depart a territory they previously occupied.

Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk told Ukrainian Channel 24 that Moscow-installed proxies on Kherson's east bank are beginning to evacuate, "taking away documentation and looted things" as they leave.

Russian forces retreated Kherson in November due to Ukrainian pushback, though last month began shelling again along the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine to "degrade civilian morale," as described by the British Ministry of Defense.

 

Kherson oblast was one of four territories annexed by Russia last September via what the West has referred to as a sham referendum, with the others including Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

"This is a sign that another 'gesture of goodwill' is being prepared," Humeniuk said, parroting a phrase that has become routine in the Kremlin lexicon to mask previous retreats from Kyiv and Snake Island.

She also claimed that the Russian military is using the civilian population on the Black Sea coast in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts as "human shields."

"They are placing their firing positions, including MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems), right in the backyards of local residents," she said. "This makes it difficult for us to respond, but it's not completely impossible."

Ukrainian forces continue to monitor Russian maneuvers and intentions, she added, expressing optimism for "good results" soon.

 

Mikhail Troitskiy, professor of practice at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek that Russia may be hedging its bets and trying to entrench its forces in comfortable defensive positions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

"Given Ukraine's expanding weapon arsenals, it may become difficult for the Russian forces to defend the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast, while there may be more defensible strongholds further east that Russia is building up right now," he said.

There are political implications, he added. Those include Russia showing China, and even Western supporters of Ukraine, that Moscow "is amenable to some kind of a compromise based on a territorial status quo that will leave in Russia's hands parts of the territory that Russia seized from Ukraine after February 24, 2022."from Ukraine after February 24, 2022."

Russian expert Dmitry Gorenburg of the Center for Naval Analyses told Newsweek that Humeniuk's report is "surprising."

"As far as I know it has been relatively quiet on that front, other than regular shelling across the river," he said. "Not much fighting at all compared to the East. I think that there's always some chance of a surprise attack from that direction, but given the difficulty of crossing the river [for either side], this is a very low likelihood."